Doorashada Madaxweynaha Mareykanka ee 2020
Afartii sanaba waxaa ka dhaca dalka Maraykanka doorashada madaxwaynaha. Madaxweyne Donald Trump iyo madaxwyne-ku-xigeenkii hore ee Joe Biden ayaa la filayaa inu tartan adagi ku dhex maro doorashoyinka dalka Maraykanka maalinta salaadada (Tuesday) ee bisha November 3, 2020.
Trump waa madaxwaynaha haatan kursiga ku fadhiya, wuxuuna ka sharaxan yahay xisbigiisa Jamhuuriga (Republicans Party) isaga iyo madaxweyne-ku-xigeenkiisa Mike Pence oo hore u ahaan jiray Gudoomiyaha (The Governor) gobalka Indiana intaanu jagada qaban. Dhinaca kale madaxwyne-ku-xigeenkii hore ee Joe Biden oo madaxweyne Obama lasoo shaqeeyey mudo siddeeda sanadood ah ayaa xisbigiisa Dimiquraadiga (The Democrats Party) u doorteen inu u tartamamo madaxweyninimada sanadkan 2020 isagoo kasoo dhex baxay 20 murashax oo ay ku tartameen xisbiga gudihiisa.
Murashaxinta xisbiga gudihiisa tartanku ku dhex maray waxaa ka mid ahayd haweenayda ah xildhibaanad gobalka California laga soo doorto oo lagu magacaabo Kamala Harris oo horeyna u soo qabatay jagada Xeer-ilaaliyaha Guud (Attorney General) ee isla gobalkaasi oo uu Biden u doortay iney madaxweyne-ku-xigeen u noqoto doorashadani. Waxa kale oo iyaguna jagada madaxweynimo u tartamaya xisbiyo kale iyo musharaxiin kale oo madaxbanaan sida xisbiga Independent Party, Libertarian Party, Tea Party, iyo qaar kaloo badan oo iyagu wax saamayn weyn ah ku yeelaneyn doorashooyinka inkastoo bulsha qaar ay codkooda siiyaan.
Hadaba doorashadan taarikhiga ahi waxay kusoo beegmeysaa waqti aad u xasaasi ah dalka Maraykanka oo bulshadu ay ku timid tafaraaruq iyo kala qoqobsanaan baahsan oo la xidhiidha doorashadii madaxwayne Trump ee sanadki 2016 lagu doortay. Trump oo lagu eedeyey inuu yahay madaxweynaha dadka cadaanka ah oo kaliya isla markaana aan siinin wax tixgalin ah dadka kale ee laga tirada badan yahay (minorities) iyo dadka assalkoodii qaxootiga ku yimid dalkan. Taagerayaasha madaxweyne Trump ayaa iyaguna noqday dad aad u adag oo bulshada inteeda kale ay dhibsadeen.
Dhinaca kale madaxweynaha waxaa lagu edeeyay oo xataa dacawado iyo baadhitaano lagu sameeyey iney shaqaalihii maamulay doorashadisii 2016 Ruushka xidhidhiid ay la sameeyeen iyagoo ka codsanaya inay Ruushku u u soo xidhaan emailladii Hilary Clinton oo markasi ay tartamayeen. Email ladani waxaa ku jirey siro badan. Trump waxaa kale oo aad uga hor yimid warbaahaintii dalka oo haba yaraatee wax arxana aaney ka dhaxayn markii uu bilaabay inuu shacabka ka horkeeno isagoo markasta ku tilmaamay inay yihiin warbaahin beenaley ah (fake news).
Madaxweynaha waxa kaloo laysku dayey in laga xayuubiyo madaxweyninimada (Presidential Impeachment) oo uu dirqi kaga badbaaday sanadkii lasoo dhaafay ee 2019. Gudomiyaha aqalka parliament ka Maraykanka, Nancy Pelosi oo ah xisbiga ay tartamayeen ee Democrats ka , iyadana iskuma fiicna ilaa imika.
Natijooyinka kala duwan ee hordhaca ah ee hayadaha madaxa banaan iyo warbaahintiba ay sameeyeen doorashada rasmiga ah ka hor ee lo yaqaan polls amba tirakoobka tageerada murashaxiinta waxay sheegayaan in labada musharax aanay waxba is dheereyn oo ay barbardhac yihiin. Polls ku laakin wax lagu xisaabtamo maaha inkastoo uu tusaale u noqon karo bulshada ama taagerayaasha. Waxyaabaha shacabku aad u dhagestaan ee lagu kala doorto murashaxinta waxaa ka mid ah barnaamij siyaasadeedyada, wax qabad koogi hore, xisbiyada aya kala matalayaan, iyo doodaha (debates) ay galaan ee tooska loo daawado.
Tirada guud shacabka Maraykanka ku nool waxaa lagu qiyaasaa inay tahay 328.2 millions oo qof.. Tirada is diwaan gelisa ee codaysa doorashoyinka madaxweynaha waa ilaa 200-250 millions afartii sano ba. Tusaale, sanadadii 2016 waxaa is diwaangeliyey 250 millions xagga ay ahayeen 235 millions 2012 kii iyo 229 millions 2008 kii. Codka shacabka (popular votes) oo kaliya maaha waxaa soosaara madaxweynaha balse waxa jira codeeya yaal daahsoon (electoral college voters) oo gobal waliba uu leeyahay tiro go’an.
Electoral college ka tiradooda guud waa 538 dhibcood marka laysku daro kontonka gobol ee dalka. Gobal kasta murashaxa u badan codka dadka (popular votes) ayaa ku guuleysta tirada electoral college ka gobolkaasi. Tusaale, gobalka California wuuxu leeyahay 55 electoral college voters halka ay Minnesota ka leedahay 10 xubnood oo kaliya sabatoo ah tirakoobka bulshada iyo sida goboladu u kala dad badan yahay ayey u kala xuno badanayaan. Haddii uu Trump ku guleysto aqlabiyada codadka California waxa uu helayaa 55 dhibcood oo ah electoral college ka, dhinaca kalena haddii uu Biden gobalka Minnesota ku guuleysto wuxuu helayaa 10 dhibcood oo kaliya. Markaa murashaxii dhibcaha electoral college ka ugu badan hela ee buuxiya 270 xubnood ayaa ku guuleysta jagada madaxweynininmada. Sanadkii 2016 Trump wuxuu helay 304 electoral college halka ay Hilary keentey 227 oo kaliya inkastoo ay iyadu ku guulaysatey popular votes kii dalkoo dhan oo ay keentey 65.8 millions halka uu Trump helay 62.9 millions codad.
Gobolada ugu electoral college voters ka badan waxaa ka mid ah California oo leh 55 xubnood, Texas oo leh 38 xubnood, New York iyo Florida oo midba uu leeyahay 29 xubnood, Illinois iyo Pennsylvania mi dwaliba leeyahay 20 xubnood, iyo Ohio oo leh 18 xubnood.
Electoral college voters ku ugu dambeyn waxay ansixiyaan bisha December madaxweynaha iyo kuxigeenkiisa. Sanadkan waxaa la filyaa in tirada cod bixiyayaashu ay aad uga bataan doorashooyinkii hore. Haatan waxaa codeeyey (early votes) tiro ah 92 millions oo qof iyadoo aan la gaadhin maalintii doorashada rasmiga ah ee November 3. Dadkaasi waxay ku codeeyeen iyagoo codkooda boosta soo dhigay amba ka codeeyey goobo loo furay hore si codka loo dhiibto.
Si kastaba ha ahaate codbixintu ahmiyad gaara ayey u leedahay shacabka reer Maraykan. Waxaynu sugnaaba waa doorashaddii iyo natijadii oo isla habeenimada salaasada ah la shaacin doono haddii ay si nabadgelyo ah u dhamaato oo tirinta codadkana la dhamaystiro.
Zaki Maki (MA)
zaki.isaac@outlook.com
Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA