Presidential Election will Bolster Somaliland’s Determination to Gain Recognition
On November 13, the 1.5 million registered voters of Somaliland Republic in the volatile Horn of Africa region went to the polls to elect a new leader.
Continue reading “Presidential Election will Bolster Somaliland’s Determination to Gain Recognition”
Forecasts for the Somaliland Presidential Election Using Electoral Survey Data
According to recent sources and analyses in Somaliland, the following surveyed polls were conducted
to provide Somalilanders with an overview of the upcoming elections scheduled for November
13, 2024. The figures below were modeled research based, proof display held over the past few
weeks, as well as phone interviews with various citizens across all regions of Somaliland. These
numbers are averaged statistical calculations.
Below are 2024 Somaliland Presidential Election that will be held on November 13th, 2024.
Those numbers are estimated, forecast and predicted from analyses in different sources,
educated and open minded in all regions of Somaliland. I’m emphasizing those numbers are
modeled from statistical analyses (mean, median and average calculations).
According to our analyses, this surveyed poll aims to highlight reasons and arguments presented by
supporters:
Reasons Given to Choose a Party
According to our contacts on the ground, most people base their presidential choice on tribal affiliation. Tribalism remains a significant issue in Somaliland, with politicians exploiting it to fuel polarization among citizens. However, the more educated segment of the population, according to our sources, considers factors like security, international recognition, economic growth, and development in making their choices.
Below chart summarizes these findings:
Following are the most popular parties “URUURO” are the following:
According to Article 9 of the Somaliland Constitution, political parties (“Xisbi”) shall not exceed three (3) parties: “1. The political system of the Republic of Somaliland shall be based on peace, cooperation, democracy, and plurality of political parties. 2. The number of political parties in the Republic of Somaliland shall not exceed three (3). 3. A special law shall determine the procedures for the formation of a political party, but it is unlawful for any political party to be based on regionalism or clannism.”
Our research and analysis indicate that the two main parties, Kulmiye and Wadani, will retain their status as “Xusbi.” Horseed, Kaah, and Hilaac will compete for the third position, potentially replacing UCID.
Let’s examine these three “Urur” closely:
In conclusion, based on information gathered from key political figures and influencers in Somaliland, Horseed, led by Chairman Dirawal, has the potential to become the third official party in the upcoming election on November 13, 2024.
SOMALILAND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION HISTORY:
All figures and data in this report were sourced from the National Election Commission of Somaliland. The first election in Somaliland was held on April 14, 2003, with 488,035 registered voters
2017 SOMALILAND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS:
What does Somaliland historical data tell us today?
According to the charts above, Somaliland voters have spoken:
Author: Abdulkarim Musse Maygag – Toronto – Canada –
abdulkmu@hotmail.com
Continue reading “Mustafe Qodax: A Mole Inside Ruling Party Kulmiye”
The New Triangle of Tension in the Horn of Africa
The Horn of Africa has recently witnessed rapid developments following Ethiopia’s announcement of the completion of the construction of the Renaissance Dam. Meanwhile, Egypt has deployed military equipment and sent delegations to Somalia as part of the joint defense pact between the two countries. This has sparked a media war between Egypt, Ethiopia and Somalia, signaling potentially dangerous developments in the region, which– according to some analysis – could escalate into direct military conflict. Continue reading “The New Triangle of Tension in the Horn of Africa”
Can Alliance Led by Egypt Hinder Ethiopia’s Quest for Sea Access?
For scholars in the field of political science and international relations, the international realm is basically the realm of balance of power, where states continuously struggle for much power and sustainable peace. Continue reading “Can Alliance Led by Egypt Hinder Ethiopia’s Quest for Sea Access?”
Somalia President Infringing Ethiopian Sovereignty by Vowing Liberating Somali Region
Within the vast tapestry of history, the steadfast truth endures as a beacon through the passage of time. Yet, there are those who endeavor to warp this truth, reshaping it to bolster their contemporary and prospective political agendas, often selectively forsaking their historical stances. This phenomenon is acutely observable in the digital age, where the annals of history are readily accessible. Amidst my morning coffee, I found myself engrossed in the political narratives of the Horn of Africa, with particular attention to Somalia and Ethiopia.
The rhetoric of President Hassan Sheik of the Somali Federal Government was notably compelling. His remarks on the new taxation policies introduced by the Federal Government have incited widespread public disquiet and opposition from several regional authorities. Nonetheless, it was his commentary on the recent Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Somaliland and the Ethiopian Federal Government that seized my focus—a development that has significantly deteriorated diplomatic relations and initiated a complex diplomatic journey, including the involvement of the Foreign Minister of Turkey. Despite the impasse in the dialogues between Somalia and Ethiopia, there remains an undercurrent of optimism that these historically linked nations will navigate towards a mutual understanding.
President Hassan Sheik addressed the topic of the Somali Region of Ethiopia, depicting it as an enduring territorial dispute. He alluded to the potential re-examination of historical conflicts to reclaim the region from Ethiopian sovereignty, if they don’t abandon the MOU and respect the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of the Somali. While I abstain from exploring the intricate narrative of Ethiopian sovereignty over the Ogaden Region, it is revealing that he considers this area as a chess piece in political gambits rather than an inseparable segment of a unified Somalia. The terms “Somali Region” and “Ogaden Region” are utilized synonymously for clarity.
Ethiopia’s significance as a linchpin in the Horn of Africa is indisputable, with its influence poised to shape the region’s stability and prosperity, hinged on the guidance of a harmonious and skilled leadership. Its strategic position, burgeoning population, and escalating economic influence establish it as a powerhouse in the African geo-political arena. The internal harmony of Ethiopia is not merely a national concern but a pivotal ingredient for regional peace. We must eschew any delight in Ethiopia’s difficulties and instead advocate for a resilient and prosperous Ethiopia.
A robust and thriving Ethiopia is essential to fortifying stability and spurring economic growth across its neighboring regions and the broader continent. It is our shared obligation to strive towards the realization of this aspiration.
Ethiopia, a kaleidoscope of ethnic groups with the Somali community as a significant element, encompasses an extensive territory of 300,000 square kilometers, making it the second-largest region. The Ogaden Region is renowned for its astute political and intellectual leaders, a culturally rich legacy, and venerated elders who have historically resisted oppressive regimes.
President Hassan’s recent declaration of the region as an unresolved matter has ignited a plethora of questions, particularly concerning his intentions and the justification for Somalia’s current claim. His conspicuous absence during the region’s most trying times, characterized by destruction, displacement, and rampant human rights abuses, raises doubts about his current motives. His previous visit to the Somali Region, where he fraternized with infamous tyrants, sharply contrasts with the Ogaden Region’s most harrowing period of suffering. Is he now a changed man, or does he see an opportunity to propagate a deceptive tale, seeking to mobilize the Somalis behind a vacuous and poorly conceived strategy under the guise of a collective menace posed by Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s leadership?
The emotional intensity is particularly pronounced among the youth, following 33 years of erratic governance. The recent political advancements in Somalia are now jeopardized by an indecisive leadership, which appears more invested in commercial pursuits than in nurturing the incremental progress made over the past decade. The harsh reality of truth is particularly distressing for those who shun its revelation. Somalia’s principal foe resides within its own borders. It is crucial to concentrate on internal affairs rather than entrusting its sovereignty to external powers like Egypt, Eritrea, Turkey, and others, which could jeopardize the nation’s existence in the forthcoming two decades if the present course is maintained.
Reflecting on Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s tenure as Prime Minister of Ethiopia reveals his visionary approach to the Somali Region, also known as the Ogaden Region. Under his governance, the region has witnessed an unprecedented level of autonomy. The onus of addressing regional concerns lies with the local leadership, reflecting the central government’s trust in their governance. The region has enjoyed a period of peace and development, significantly attributed to the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), whose adherence to the peace agreement with the Ethiopian Federal Government has been instrumental in the region’s progress. Their political resilience, despite external interference, is noteworthy.
As discerning stewards of our future, we must remain alert. We must guard against those who disguise their exploitative ambitions as liberator endeavors. The annals of history remind us that individuals like Mr. Hassan of Somalia have lacked the vision and sincerity to see the Ogaden Region prosper.
The Somali Region is charting a path of optimism and exemplary, aspiring to be a model of peace and prosperity for the Horn of Africa. It is our collective responsibility to protect the peace our people have relished over the last seven years and to continue building upon a foundation of enduring peace for our region and nation.
As we navigate towards the pinnacle of good governance, we face the enduring obstacles of nepotism and corruption. However, if we unite against those who seek to use us for their transient political gains, we can overcome these challenges and lay the groundwork for a future characterized by integrity and collective well-being.
Professor Mohammed Ahmed is board chairman of OWS Development Fund, a non-government and non-profit civil society organization based in Jigjiga, Somali region, Ethiopia. He can be reached at Maahmed@owsdf.org
US Neither A Beacon of Democracy nor Human Rights Advocator
One of the most shocking and disgusting scenes the world has ever witnessed in recent years was the standing ovation accorded to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by US Congressmen and women when he was invited to speak to the Congress last month. This blatant display of racism and impunity by Continue reading “US Neither A Beacon of Democracy nor Human Rights Advocator”
The Passive Audience & Dishonest Senior Leadership of Wadani Party
Even though I have no particular affection for the Wadani Party, it is seen as a crucial component of Somaliland’s fledgling democracy. But instead of trying to counter Kulmiye with bold politics and win over the hearts and minds of Somaliland citizens, its senior officials are burying the party with a white shroud in a graveyard. Before it’s too late, its elites, financiers, strategists, and core supporters ought to take action and save it. Continue reading “The Passive Audience & Dishonest Senior Leadership of Wadani Party”
South Africa Should be 2nd in Line Recognizing Somaliland, Following Ethiopia’s Historic Move
This article examines why South Africa could be the second country or first-line countries that recognizes Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state after Ethiopia and what the push is to include those countries. Continue reading “South Africa Should be 2nd in Line Recognizing Somaliland, Following Ethiopia’s Historic Move”
Ethiopian Naval Base in Somaliland: Strategically Important for Regional Security
The geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa has witnessed a transformative development with Somaliland and Ethiopia’s announcement of a potential Ethiopian naval base in Somaliland. This strategic move is not only aimed at enhancing maritime security in the Gulf of Aden but also addressing broader Continue reading “Ethiopian Naval Base in Somaliland: Strategically Important for Regional Security”
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