Is the MoU Between Ethiopia and Somaliland Still in Effect?
Dr. Isse Kayd Mohamud, the departing Foreign Affairs Minister of Somaliland, told the BBC about the memorandum of understanding that President Bihi’s administration signed with Ethiopia and whether it came to an end when the Somali president and the Ethiopian prime minister agreed on the issue. Continue reading “Is the MoU Between Ethiopia and Somaliland Still in Effect?”
Outlining A Comprehensive Foreign Policy Vision for the New Admin Under President-elect H.E. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Cirro”
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Somaliland stands at a critical juncture in its history. Decades of resilience, meticulous state-building, and a commitment to democratic governance have positioned it as a beacon of stability in the often turbulent Horn of Africa. While the region grapples with conflicts, fragile states, and authoritarian regimes, Somaliland has charted an extraordinary path, characterized by grassroots peace-building, credible elections, and a functioning governance structure. Continue reading “Outlining A Comprehensive Foreign Policy Vision for the New Admin Under President-elect H.E. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Cirro””
Presidential Election will Bolster Somaliland’s Determination to Gain Recognition
On November 13, the 1.5 million registered voters of Somaliland Republic in the volatile Horn of Africa region went to the polls to elect a new leader.
Continue reading “Presidential Election will Bolster Somaliland’s Determination to Gain Recognition”
An Email Interview by Addis Standard with Wadani Figure Reveals Startling Position of the Party on the MoU with Ethiopia
The signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland, a region Somalia’s federal government regards as part of its own territory, has attracted considerable attention in the Horn of Africa. Inked at the start of 2024, the MoU seeks to grant Ethiopia access to the Red Sea in return for the recognition of Somaliland. Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has strongly criticized the agreement, accusing Ethiopia of violating Somalia’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Ethiopia, however, maintains that it has a right to secure access to the sea. Continue reading “An Email Interview by Addis Standard with Wadani Figure Reveals Startling Position of the Party on the MoU with Ethiopia”
In Somaliland’s Quest for Recognition, President Bihi is the Choice
Less than three weeks to go until election day, President Muse Bihi has a good chance to be re-elected. I like President Muse Bihi because he is an unapologetic nationalist Somalilander who puts Somaliland interest first. That alone makes him an exemplary president of Somaliland Republic. Continue reading “In Somaliland’s Quest for Recognition, President Bihi is the Choice”
While Mogadishu teeters on failure, Somaliland is taking concrete steps toward long-term development and stability.
Roda J Elmi
Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister
Somaliland
Ethiopia Defends MoU with Somaliland
Ethiopia has been mostly silent about the Memorandum of Understanding it signed with Somaliland while Somalia delved into garnering military, diplomatic and military support from the region on alleged grounds that the agreement violates its sovereignty.
Now Ethiopia is openly defending the agreement and did so at the U.N. General Assembly.
During his speech, Taye reaffirmed Ethiopia’s dedication to multilateralism and collaboration in the Horn of Africa, contextualizing the accord within a more comprehensive plan for mutual development. “The current political system in Somalia serves as the foundation for Ethiopia’s memorandum of understanding with Somaliland. “We reject the baseless accusations made against Ethiopia regarding this agreement, and our goal is shared growth and prosperity in the region,” Taye declared. In order to confront the more immediate threat of terrorism in the area, he advised Somalia to concentrate on cooperation. “We encourage Somalia to work with us to eliminate the terrorist threats that plague the region,” he stated.
Ethiopia also made claims that the “objective is shared growth and prosperity in the region.” Another point that the Ethiopian Foreign Affairs Minister made at the assembly is that similar agreements have been with other states.
Ethiopia doesn’t waver in its beliefs. “Our intentions are not to undermine any nation’s sovereignty but to pursue mutually beneficial partnerships,” Taye stated at the United Nations. He continued by saying that Ethiopia had just signed comparable deals with other nations in an effort to promote trade and development throughout the region.
Taye added that ” there is no reason for the Federal Government of Somalia to incite hostility that obviously intends to cover internal political tensions.”
The contributions of Ethiopia along with nations in the region to protect Somalia from terrorist groups and the sacrifices made in that regard was also highlighted – apparently to demonstrate that Ethiopia does not have ill-intentions against Somalia. But activists from Somalia would reduce this point to “service was not in exchange for land.”
An update from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs cited Taye Atske-Selassie, the Minister, as saying, in his speech at the U.N. , the MoU with Somaliland is ” based on existing political dispensation in Somalia…”
Ethiopia also made claims that the “objective is shared growth and prosperity in the region.” Another point that the Ethiopian Foreign Affairs Minister made at the assembly is that similar agreements have been with other states.
Taye added that ” there is no reason for the Federal Government of Somalia to incite hostility that obviously intends to cover internal political tensions.”
The contributions of Ethiopia along with nations in the region to protect Somalia from terrorist groups and the sacrifices made in that regard was also highlighted – apparently to demonstrate that Ethiopia does not have ill-intentions against Somalia. But activists from Somalia would reduce this point to “service was not in exchange for land.”
Why is Egypt Involved in the Impasse Between Ethiopia and Somalia?
In early 2024, a major geopolitical event unfolded in the Horn of Africa with far-reaching consequences. Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on 01 January 2024 granting Ethiopia sea access through Somaliland’s ports in exchange for potential international recognition for Somaliland, marking a significant shift in the region’s political landscape.
The move was swiftly met with opposition from Somalia. The federal government in Mogadishu, despite having no authority over Somaliland since 1991, called the MoU illegal and accused Ethiopia of violating its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Tensions have mounted between the two countries since then. Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has sought to strengthen his country’s military and diplomatic alliances, culminating in a defense agreement with Egypt, formally approved by Somalia’s cabinet on 19 July 2024.
A month later, on 27 August 2024, two Egyptian military planes arrived at Mogadishu airport, according to Reuters, carrying weapons and ammunition. Egypt is reportedly preparing to send 10,000 troops to Somalia as part of a new peacekeeping mission slated for next year. This move has further escalated tensions with Ethiopia, raising fears of an emerging conflict. During a speech commemorating Ethiopia’s Day of Sovereignty on 08 September 2024, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed issued a stern warning: “Anyone wishing to provoke Ethiopia should think carefully—ten times, not just once.”
Eyasu Hailemichael, a lecturer of International Relations specializing in the Horn of Africa, noted that while the risk of direct military confrontation remains low, a proxy conflict between Egypt-backed Somalia and Ethiopia is increasingly likely and carries significant geopolitical implications. According to Eyasu, the strategic importance of the Horn of Africa, particularly its proximity to the Red Sea—a vital maritime corridor for global trade—makes regional stability crucial, and the ongoing discord threatens to disrupt supply chains, hinder economic development, and destabilize an already fragile area.
Eyasu further emphasized that the involvement of external powers like the US, China, Russia, and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries complicates the situation, raising concerns about the Horn of Africa becoming a geopolitical battleground.
Egypt’s Involvement: Genuine support or strategic maneuver?
Asrat Birhanu, a hydropolitics researcher, argues that Egypt’s involvement is less about supporting Somalia and more about countering Ethiopia’s influence in the region. He suggests that Egypt is using its military cooperation with Somalia to create a geopolitical buffer against Ethiopia and gain leverage in the ongoing Nile River dispute.
Asrat highlights the disconnect between Egypt’s portrayal as a stabilizing force and its actions. He notes that the military agreement with Somalia appears to be a thinly veiled attempt to draw the country into Egypt’s sphere of influence. “Egypt’s strategy could undermine Somalia’s sovereignty and stability, exacerbating its internal fragmentation and further destabilizing the region,” he remarked.
Moustafa Ahmad, a researcher at the United States Institute of Peace, echoed this view, noting that Egypt’s primary interest is in isolating Ethiopia rather than playing a constructive role in Somali security. “The failure of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) negotiations and Ethiopia’s continued filling of the dam have placed significant domestic pressure on Cairo. Additionally, Egypt is unwilling to accept Ethiopia’s potential naval presence in the Red Sea,” he stated.
By aligning with Somalia, Moustafa argues, Egypt risks further destabilizing a region already grappling with internal challenges, such as the ongoing fight against Al-Shabaab militants. Somalia’s military cooperation with Egypt not only hardens Ethiopia’s stance on the MoU with Somaliland but also complicates Somalia’s internal political dynamics. Some Somali federal member states have expressed dissatisfaction with Egyptian involvement under the AU Support and Stabilization Mission, preferring the continued role of Ethiopian forces, which Mogadishu is seeking to phase out.
Federico Donelli, a professor of International Relations at the University of Trieste specializing in the Red Sea region, explained that Egypt’s involvement in Somalia is driven by both strategy and opportunity. Strategically, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has been working to revive Egypt’s regional influence, particularly through diplomacy. Concurrently, Somalia’s request for Egyptian assistance provides an opportunity to deter Ethiopia amid growing rivalry between the two countries.
However, Federico warned of significant risks to Egypt’s strategy, including potential backlash from other regional powers and the challenge of navigating complex internal dynamics and challenging terrain in Somalia. “Egyptian troops may face more vulnerabilities than they anticipate,” he cautioned. Federico also noted that Egypt’s involvement has shifted the regional balance of power, with new alliances forming around Somalia’s position while others remain neutral. However, Somalia’s fragility persists, and Egyptian intervention could increase the country’s vulnerability, he stated.
Navigating a diplomatic solution
Turkey has actively attempted to mediate between Ethiopia and Somalia, hosting two rounds of talks in Ankara. Initially, these discussions offered a glimmer of hope for resolving the crisis, but the talks collapsed due to irreconcilable differences. Somalia demands that Ethiopia scrap the MoU, while Ethiopia insists on securing sea access in a “mutually agreeable manner.” A third round of talks is scheduled, though experts remain skeptical about the likelihood of success.
According to Federico Donelli, author of Turkey in Africa: Turkey’s Strategic Involvement in Sub-Saharan Africa, Turkey has made considerable efforts to mediate, but the underlying issues remain too complex. “It is hard to imagine Ethiopia giving up access to the Red Sea, and equally difficult for Somalia to accept the MoU with Somaliland,” he said. This deadlock suggests that only a significant compromise from one side could break the impasse, something neither nation appears willing to do.
Moustafa Ahmad concurs that Somaliland’s pursuit of international recognition is the core issue. “Somalia will continue to oppose any deals involving Somaliland’s independence, and the MoU has highlighted the need to address this issue,” he stated. He also suggested that Somalia’s strengthened military cooperation with Egypt may have emboldened Mogadishu, complicating Ethiopia’s diplomatic position and straining Turkey’s mediation efforts.
Eyasu Hailemichael added that deep-seated mistrust between Ethiopia and Somalia, stemming from historical tensions and diverging national priorities, makes finding common ground exceedingly difficult. This distrust has undermined mediation efforts so far, he stressed.
As tensions escalate, the urgency for a diplomatic resolution grows. Eyasu suggests a multifaceted approach that emphasizes promoting cooperative solutions. He noted that sustained regional dialogue, facilitated by neutral bodies such as the African Union or the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), could help ease tensions and ensure long-term stability in the region.
The New Triangle of Tension in the Horn of Africa
The Horn of Africa has recently witnessed rapid developments following Ethiopia’s announcement of the completion of the construction of the Renaissance Dam. Meanwhile, Egypt has deployed military equipment and sent delegations to Somalia as part of the joint defense pact between the two countries. This has sparked a media war between Egypt, Ethiopia and Somalia, signaling potentially dangerous developments in the region, which– according to some analysis – could escalate into direct military conflict. Continue reading “The New Triangle of Tension in the Horn of Africa”
The Predicament Somalia Is In
Navigating the diplomatic complexities between Somalia and Ethiopia is like balancing on a tightrope, where allies, adversaries, and interests converge in intricate ways. There are 16 facts highlighting key regional and global dynamics that influence the ongoing “Ethiopian access to the sea” debate, impacting the relations between Ethiopia and Somalia. Continue reading “The Predicament Somalia Is In”