Tag: Somalia

Somalia Observes as the UAE Deepens Its Military Ties with Somaliland

Somalia Observes as the U.A.E. Deepens Its Military Ties with Somaliland

As the Gulf state increases its power in the Horn of Africa, the United Arab Emirates -UAE – and Somaliland are strengthening their military and security collaboration. This development may further exacerbate tensions between Abu Dhabi and the federal government of Somalia. Continue reading “Somalia Observes as the UAE Deepens Its Military Ties with Somaliland”

Two Summits in Djibouti, but no Talk of Djibouti’s Own Struggles

Two Summits in Djibouti, but no Talk of Djibouti’s Own Struggles

The Horn of Africa is facing an unprecedented confluence of crises, marked by civil wars in Ethiopia and Sudan, escalating tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, and the persistent threat of Al-Shabaab’s insurgency in Somalia.

Against this backdrop, two high-profile forums were held recently in Djibouti, aimed at addressing regional stability and security. The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies convened its annual three-day dialogue on regional stability, while the East Africa Security Forum (EASF) brought together diplomats, military leaders, and private-sector stakeholders under the auspices of the Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA).

However, conspicuously absent from both forums were discussions about Djibouti’s own internal issues: widespread hunger, endemic insecurity, and a lack of democratic governance. These omissions raise critical questions about the priorities of regional and international stakeholders and the inherent challenges of hosting such discussions in a country with pressing internal issues.

The Horn of Africa is a region teetering on the edge of collapse. In Ethiopia and Sudan, civil wars have left thousands dead and millions displaced. Somalia continues to battle the Al-Shabaab insurgency, a persistent threat to national and regional stability.

Meanwhile, tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia have flared over a contentious port deal Addis Ababa signed with Somaliland, the breakaway region whose sovereignty remains unrecognized internationally.
Amid this chaos, Djibouti has positioned itself as a relative island of stability, hosting international military bases and serving as a hub for diplomatic activity.

Yet beneath this façade, Djibouti grapples with its own set of crises, including hunger exacerbated by prolonged droughts, economic vulnerabilities, and a political system often criticized for its lack of democratic freedoms.

Between April and June 2024, for instance, an estimated 221,000 people or 19 percent of the analyzed population (out of 1.18 million people), were facing high levels of acute food insecurity, according to the Integrated Food Security (IPC).

In the 2024 Global Hunger Index, Djibouti ranks 92nd out of 127 countries, with a score of 21.2, indicating a serious level of hunger. Djibouti imports 90% of its food, making it vulnerable to international market price fluctuations, according to the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations. The country’s hot, dry climate also limits agricultural production.

Djibouti has a poverty rate of 79%, with 42% of the population living in extreme poverty. High levels of unemployment also contribute to humanitarian needs.

Djibouti’s geographical location makes it a strategic hub for international military bases, hosting troops from the United States, China, France, Japan, and Italy. Djibouti’s maritime territory is increasingly plagued by illegal fishing activities, primarily conducted by foreign fleets from Yemen and China. These unregulated operations deplete fish stocks, threatening the livelihoods of local fishing communities and disrupting the marine ecosystem.

Illegal fishing not only undermines Djibouti’s economic prospects but also poses a security threat. It has been linked to organized criminal networks that use fishing vessels as cover for smuggling goods, weapons, and even people. Additionally, the lack of effective maritime surveillance leaves Djibouti’s waters vulnerable to exploitation, highlighting a significant gap in its security infrastructure.

The government’s inability to monitor and regulate its maritime borders exacerbates the issue. While international partnerships, such as those with the European Union’s naval operations and other anti-piracy missions, aim to strengthen maritime security, the focus often remains on piracy rather than illegal fishing. This imbalance leaves the problem of unregulated fishing largely unaddressed.

While these bases contribute to regional security, they do not shield Djibouti from internal and neighboring conflicts. The Horn of Africa is one of the most volatile regions globally, with civil wars in Ethiopia and Sudan, Al-Shabaab’s insurgency in Somalia, and heightened tensions between neighboring states.

These conflicts spill over into Djibouti, straining its limited resources and exposing vulnerabilities in its security apparatus. For instance, tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia over territorial disputes and Somaliland’s independence aspirations often find expression in Djibouti’s border areas, leading to localized instability. The porous borders make it difficult for authorities to control the influx of refugees and militants, further complicating security management.

Domestically, Djibouti faces political repression and a lack of democratic governance, which exacerbate insecurity. The government, led by President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh since 1999, has faced allegations of being an Al-Shabaab sympathizer. There are also allegations that Somalia’s Salaam Bank, which has been linked with Al-Shabaab over the years, also has links with Guelleh’s inner political circle.

His government continues to face strong criticism for stifling dissent and consolidating power. This political climate fosters discontent among the populace and raises concerns about the state’s ability to manage internal security effectively.

Human trafficking is a persistent and growing problem in Djibouti, largely driven by its proximity to conflict zones and its strategic location as a transit point to Yemen and the Arabian Peninsula. The majority of trafficked individuals come from Somalia and Ethiopia, fleeing poverty, conflict, and political instability. These migrants often seek better opportunities in Gulf countries but become victims of exploitation and abuse along the way.

Djibouti serves as a key transit route for smugglers and traffickers who promise desperate migrants passage to Yemen, often under dire and dangerous conditions. The journey involves crossing the treacherous Gulf of Aden, frequently in overcrowded and unseaworthy vessels. Many do not survive the crossing, falling victim to drowning, starvation, or abuse at the hands of smugglers.

The human trafficking networks operating in Djibouti are highly organized, exploiting the country’s weak border controls and limited law enforcement resources. Despite efforts by international organizations and NGOs to combat trafficking, the scale of the problem remains overwhelming. Trafficked individuals often face inhumane treatment, including forced labor and sexual exploitation, both en route and upon arrival in their destination countries.

Despite these glaring issues, the forums held in Djibouti turned their focus outward, concentrating on the region’s broader security dilemmas. The absence of discussions on Djibouti’s internal challenges is reflective of its strategic position and the delicate balancing act required in such high-stakes gatherings.

From November 25 to 27, scholars, politicians, and traditional leaders gathered for the Heritage Institute’s annual forum, hosted in Djibouti. The focus was on fostering dialogue among key stakeholders from across the Horn of Africa, with an emphasis on addressing regional instability. Central to the discussions were the civil wars in Ethiopia and Sudan, Somalia’s ongoing political challenges, and the threat posed by Al-Shabaab.

The forum offered a unique opportunity for regional leaders to confront pressing transnational issues. However, its agenda sidestepped domestic concerns within Djibouti, opting instead to spotlight regional dynamics. The decision to omit discussions about Djibouti’s hunger crisis, insecurity, or democratic deficits can be attributed to several factors, including the forum’s regional scope and the host nation’s influence over the agenda.

The East Africa Security Forum (EASF) held from November 21 to 23 at Camp Lemonnier, the East Africa Security Forum took a decidedly security-focused approach. Organized by the U.S.-led Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa, the forum emphasized enhancing collaboration between the U.S. and its regional partners. Discussions revolved around managing inter- and intra-state conflicts, leveraging private-sector investments for stability, and tackling tribal and national affiliations that often fuel regional discord.

Once again, Djibouti’s internal issues were notably absent. Instead, the forum concentrated on broader regional and international security priorities, aligning with U.S. strategic interests in the Horn of Africa. As a key U.S. ally and the site of America’s largest military base in Africa, Djibouti enjoys a degree of diplomatic immunity when it comes to scrutiny of its internal affairs.

This narrative of stability is carefully cultivated and fiercely protected in Djibouti. Raising issues such as hunger, insecurity, or democratic deficits in high-profile forums held within Djibouti could be seen as diplomatically provocative, potentially jeopardizing relations with the host nation.

Consequently, organizers often tread cautiously, prioritizing external challenges over internal critiques.

However, this approach is not without consequences. Ignoring Djibouti’s domestic issues risks perpetuating cycles of poverty, eroding governance, and undermining the very stability that makes it a valuable partner in regional security efforts.

Djibouti’s hunger crisis, driven by prolonged droughts and economic stagnation, continues to affect a significant portion of its population. Failing to address these issues in forums ostensibly focused on stability undermines efforts to build a resilient and secure region.

International actors, including the U.S. and multilateral organizations, have a responsibility to advocate for transparency and reform in Djibouti but they often choose no to. The absence of meaningful U.S. advocacy for transparency and reform enables Djibouti’s entrenched authoritarian practices, stifling democratic progress.

President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh has presided over a system marked by political repression, corruption, and limited civic freedoms. Without external pressure for reform, this system remains unchallenged, perpetuating governance practices that prioritize elite interests over public welfare.

By avoiding discussions on governance and democracy, forums inadvertently legitimize Djibouti’s authoritarian tendencies. This silence not only perpetuates existing power structures but also undermines broader efforts to promote democratic principles across the region.

Djibouti’s lack of transparency hampers economic development by discouraging foreign investment and allowing corruption to flourish. With a centralized economy heavily dependent on port revenues and rents from military bases, unchecked governance risks deepening economic inequality and fostering discontent among marginalized communities.

Future forums must adopt a more inclusive and holistic approach to addressing the Horn of Africa’s challenges. This includes incorporating discussions on domestic issues within host nations like Djibouti, even when such topics are diplomatically sensitive.

Ilhan Omar: The Shadow Ally of China, Sabotaging U.S. Interests in the Horn of Africa!

Ilhan Omar: The Shadow Ally of China, Sabotaging U.S. Interests in the Horn of Africa!

Ilhan Omar’s efforts to undermine a U.S.-Somaliland partnership represent a stark betrayal of American geopolitical interests. While openly championing Somalia’s agenda, she worked behind the scenes to block the U.S. from forging a strategic alliance with the stable and sovereign Republic of Somaliland. Her actions effectively handed China a golden opportunity to solidify it’s dominance in the Horn of Africa. Under Biden’s watch, this has only emboldened Beijing’s ambitions in the region. In a video addressing a Somalian audience, Omar openly boasted about her close ties to Somalia’s president and it’s regime, raising serious questions about her loyalty and whose interests she truly serves.


The timing couldn’t be better. After Ilhan Omar’s meddling undermined U.S. interests in the Horn of Africa, President Trump stepped in with a bold, strategic move that could shift the balance of power in the region. During his campaign, plans emerged to re-recognize the Republic of Somaliland – a state that has held its sovereignty since June 26, 1960, within his first 100 days in office. This wasn’t a symbolic gesture; it was a calculated response to China’s growing influence in Africa and a way to secure America’s position in a crucial geopolitical hotspot.

Yes, you read that right. This wasn’t just a symbolic gesture; it was a calculated move to secure a vital U.S. foothold in Africa as its position in Djibouti began to deteriorate.

Transactional Diplomacy? You Bet.

We all know Trump’s approach to foreign policy is far from traditional. His “transactional” style – make a deal, secure something in return, raises eyebrows but delivers results. So, what’s in this deal for the U.S. and Republic of Somaliland?

Here’s the play: Somaliland, a peaceful, stable country with a thriving democracy and a supreme strategic location, is offering the U.S. a military base in exchange for formal re-recognition. A U.S. base could not only strengthen the fight against China’s dominance in Africa, but it also puts the U.S. in prime position to counter Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen. It’s about securing key strategic maritime routes and maintaining U.S. power in one of the world’s most volatile regions and let’s face it – Trump knows exactly how to leverage situations to make a deal that works.

Somaliland: A Key Player in the Red Sea

Republic of Somaliland controls a crucial piece of the Red Sea, near the Bab El-Mandeb Strait – one of the world’s most important maritime choke points. Whoever holds sway here controls not just trade but power over oil shipping routes and naval movements in and out of the Mediterranean, Red Sea, and beyond.

But it’s not just about trade. It’s about military presence, global influence, and sending a message. By establishing a U.S. base there, the U.S. would disrupt China’s growing reach in the region, especially with China’s military base just a stone’s throw away in Djibouti. China has already set up its first and only military base outside its borders in Djibouti, directly facing Somaliland. This makes Somaliland strategic location even more critical for any country looking to maintain a foothold in the region. This is a much-needed counterbalance in an increasingly contested region. The significance of this choke point, China’s own foreign policy move to intimidate and coerce Republic of Somaliland into abandoning its ties with Taiwan has led to serious geopolitical flashpoints.

China’s Influence: A Game of Pressure

China is keen on limiting U.S. involvement and influencing Republic of Somaliland relationships. Their strategy? Pressure Somaliland to cut ties with Taiwan, halt its engagements with the U.S., and sow division in the region. Beijing knows that the more destabilized Somaliland becomes, the easier it is to curtail Western influence – and in particular, stop the U.S. military from gaining a foothold in a region of unmatched significance.

In 2023, the eastern regions of the Republic of Somaliland were plunged into a proxy war, one that China is still sponsoring it. But who helped trigger this geopolitical mess? Ilhan Omar. An outspoken advocate for a “Somalian-first” agenda, Omar didn’t just sit on the sidelines – she actively sabotaged the burgeoning U.S.-Somaliland partnership. How? She leaked confidential details about the U.S.-Somaliland partnership Act, which was making its way through Congress, directly to the Somalian government as a deliberate betrayal.

 

Omar, a key member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, had deep personal ties to Somalian interests. She saw herself as a self-appointed defender of Somalian nationalism in the U.S. Congress. Yet, her actions, working behind the scenes with the Somalian government, allowed China to exploit the situation by backing a militia to start its proxy war against Somaliland eastern regions. Why? Because Somalia, seeing the growing U.S.-Somaliland ties, feared it would threaten its own grip on U.S. foreign aid and regional influence. Somalia has long blackmailed the U.S., portraying any strategic partnership with Somaliland as a destabilizing force that could topple their fragile, failed state – forgetting that Somalia’s failure has been a decades-long saga that couldn’t possibly get any worse. (ISIS, Al-shabaab, Piracy, ties with the Houthis & Iran) This blackmail strategy, propped up by the failed and non existent “One Somalia” policy championed by Democrats and cemented by Hillary Clinton’s legacy which recognized the Somalian non existent government back in 2012 – despite its lack of legitimacy and no meaningful authority on the ground – the U.S. became a source of endless handouts funneled through corrupt UN offices, ATMIS forces, and the Somalian artificial government, all siphoning billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars with no real return or tangible benefits. By undermining that partnership, Omar knowingly allowed China to step in and tighten its hold in the Horn of Africa.

 

The Ilhan Omar Factor: A Complex Political Puzzle

Ilhan Omar’s actions in 2022 raise serious questions about her loyalty to U.S. interests. Her personal and intimate visit to Somalia as a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee and interference with the U.S.-Somaliland partnership helped China tighten its grip on the Horn of Africa. By blocking a strategic U.S. alliance, she effectively aligned with Somalia’s and China’s agendas, sabotaging American geopolitical goals.

 

The real question now: Should the Trump administration investigate whether a sitting congresswoman is putting America’s national security at risk to serve foreign powers? These aren’t just political missteps. They could be a betrayal of U.S. interests.

 

Stopping the Houthi Threat – Before It’s Too Late

The situation in Yemen continues to deteriorate, as Iranian-backed Houthis fire missiles at international vessels. With Somalia still struggling and the U.S. trying to fight from across the region, Somaliland offers a closer, more strategic base to push back against the Houthis’ expansion. This is security at its finest – stopping regional instability before it spreads and threatens vital trade routes.

Is Somaliland the U.S.’s Most Strategic Geopolitical Ally in the Horn of Africa? Absolutely.

For critics of Trump’s transactional diplomacy, here’s a quick reality check: in international relations, pragmatism is often a game-changer. Somaliland isn’t just another “breakaway region” trying to get recognized; It’s an emerging power in a strategic location, its statehood has never been in question, dating back to June 26, 1960 and has never ceased to exist. This state is aligned with international law, maintaining its credentials of independence and demarcated boundaries in accordance with the African Union’s 1964 borders. The U.S. and 30+ countries first recognized it. Trump isn’t changing history; he’s re-recognizing Somaliland, a key player in the Horn of Africa with undeniable geopolitical importance.

Somaliland’s own leadership understands the importance of this offer. It’s a classic win-win: Somaliland gets re-recognition, while the U.S. gets a military base on Africa’s most critical stretch of coastline.

Trump’s Legacy: A Foreign Policy Revolution?

What Trump has on the table could change the entire dynamic of U.S. power in the region. If his administration re-recognizes Somaliland, it shifts U.S. alliances in Africa and puts America’s interests first. It’s not about feeling good about some hypothetical nation’s failures – it’s about winning the strategic game. Trump’s re-recognition of Somaliland would act as a warning shot to adversaries while also affirming that global alliances should be based on mutual, actionable interests.

The Bottom Line:

The U.S. needs Somaliland, and Somaliland needs the U.S. But this isn’t just a political gesture – it’s a bold, savvy, and strategic move that signals a new era for American foreign policy. The world needs to recognize the shifting tectonic plates of geopolitics – and if President Trump capitalizes on this opportunity, it could redefine U.S. influence in Africa and beyond.

The real question is: will the U.S. act before it’s too late, or let this opportunity slip through its fingers? The time for re-recognition is now

Author

A geopolitical writer, analyst and a researcher advocating for Somaliland recognition

Somali Ambassador’s Misleading Claims Regarding Possible US Recognition of Somaliland

Somali Ambassador’s Misleading Claims Regarding Possible US Recognition of Somaliland
Amid reports that President-elect Donald Trump’s administration may consider recognizing the self-governing coastal region of Somaliland as independent from Somalia, Somali Ambassador to the United States Dahir Hassan Abdi wrote an op-ed arguing that the US should support a unified Somali state. Continue reading “Somali Ambassador’s Misleading Claims Regarding Possible US Recognition of Somaliland”

Dr. Pham’s Pick Sealed Trump’s Somaliland Recognition


Dr. Pham’s Pick Sealed Trump’s Somaliland Recognition

Dr. Pham frequently shares Somaliland’s achievements and how each step is heading in the right direction on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, demonstrating his strong support for the country’s independence and sovereignty. He also makes the important point that, in spite of the billions of US money spent on it, Somalia is a failed state with nothing promising in the works. Continue reading “Dr. Pham’s Pick Sealed Trump’s Somaliland Recognition”

Tuke, the Perpetrator of Gabiley Genocide, Permanently Deported from the US to Somalia

Tuke, the Perpetrator of Gabiley Genocide, Permanently Deported from the US to Somalia

Enforcement and Removal Operations Office in Washington, D.C. of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement removed Yusuf Abdi Ali, 71, a citizen of Somalia, from the United States to Somalia Dec. 20. Continue reading “Tuke, the Perpetrator of Gabiley Genocide, Permanently Deported from the US to Somalia”

Is the MoU Between Ethiopia and Somaliland Still in Effect?

Is the MoU Between Ethiopia and Somaliland Still in Effect?

Dr. Isse Kayd Mohamud, the departing Foreign Affairs Minister of Somaliland, told the BBC about the memorandum of understanding that President Bihi’s administration signed with Ethiopia and whether it came to an end when the Somali president and the Ethiopian prime minister agreed on the issue. Continue reading “Is the MoU Between Ethiopia and Somaliland Still in Effect?”

Outlining A Comprehensive Foreign Policy Vision for the New Admin Under President-elect H.E. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Cirro”

Outlining A Comprehensive Foreign Policy Vision for the New Admin Under President-elect H.E. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Cirro”

“Re-imagining Somaliland Foreign Policy: A Vision for Sovereignty, Security, and Prosperity”

Somaliland stands at a critical juncture in its history. Decades of resilience, meticulous state-building, and a commitment to democratic governance have positioned it as a beacon of stability in the often turbulent Horn of Africa. While the region grapples with conflicts, fragile states, and authoritarian regimes, Somaliland has charted an extraordinary path, characterized by grassroots peace-building, credible elections, and a functioning governance structure. Continue reading “Outlining A Comprehensive Foreign Policy Vision for the New Admin Under President-elect H.E. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Cirro””

President-elect: Trump Election Campaign Blueprint Aims to Recognize Somaliland

President-elect: Trump Election Campaign Blueprint Aims to Recognize Somaliland

A lengthy document reportedly crafted by members and supporters of the US Republican Party ahead of the upcoming elections hints that if Donald Trump wins, Washington will grant official recognition to the Somaliland Republic

Dubbed “Project 2025: Presidential Transition Project,” the over 900-page document sets out a list of objectives to be accomplished over the presidential nominee’s first 100 days in the Oval Office.

The document states the importance of “the recognition of Somaliland statehood as a hedge against the U.S.’s deteriorating position in Djibouti.”

The presence of a dozen military bases belonging to foreign powers in the tiny nation has been an additional factor in increasingly complicated geopolitics in the Horn of Africa.

During the inaugural Red Sea Security Conference held in Addis Ababa a few months ago, Djiboutian representatives stated that hosting both Chinese and American military bases has posed difficulties as the two powers seek the expulsion of the other.

However, following the recent circulation of the “Project 2025” document on social media, Donald Trump, former president while running for the upcoming election, distanced himself from the document.

In a comment posted on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump stated “I know nothing about Project2025. I have no idea who is behind it. I disagree with some of the things they are saying and some of the things they are saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal. Anything they do, I wish them luck, but I have nothing to do with them.”

Trump reportedly distanced himself from the document following strong backlash from American scholars and politicians. Some of the policies included in the Project 2025 agenda have been advocated for by Republicans for years or backed by Trump himself. These include slashing the education budget and introducing alternative schooling choices, tougher immigration and border laws, as well as cuts to social security programs and advocacy for mass deportation and the construction of a border wall, among others.

Project 2025 was prepared by the Heritage Foundation and other Republican affiliated groups. Various media outlets report the document is the fruit of Trump’s allies and political affiliates.

CNN discovered that at least 140 people who worked under the Trump administration were involved in the crafting of Project 2025. This includes “more than half of the people listed as authors, editors and contributors to “Mandate for Leadership,” the project’s extensive manifesto for overhauling the executive branch,” CNN reported this week.

The list of people with ties to Trump and Project 2025 includes close to 240 individuals ranging from ordinary White House staff members to senior US government officials.

The number is likely higher because many individuals’ online resumes were not available, according to CNN.

“In addition to people who worked directly for Trump, others who participated in Project 2025 were appointed by the former president to independent positions. The extensive overlap between Project 2025 and Trump’s universe of allies, advisers and former staff complicates his efforts to distance himself from the work. Trump’s campaign has sought for months to make clear that Project 2025 doesn’t speak for them amid an intensifying push by President Joe Biden and Democrats to tie the Republican standard bearer to the playbook’s more controversial policies,” reported CNN.

Project 2025 is spearheaded by the Heritage Foundation, but includes an advisory board consisting of more than 100 conservative groups.

The document’s first pillar, an overhaul of the federal government, has drawn the fiercest criticism thus far.

“Called “Mandate for Leadership 2025: The Conservative Promise,” the book builds on a “Mandate for Leadership” first published in January 1981, which sought to serve as a roadmap for Ronald Reagan’s incoming administration,” reports CNN.

The changes outlined in the plan touch on virtually every federal office and agency in the US government.

During his presidency in office, Trump was often part of rows with African leaders. His outright rejection of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was particularly notable.

Analysts observe that even if Trump were to win the election and recognize Somaliland, the decision would be from the US point of interest, which is focused on combating China’s growing influence in Africa