Presidential Election will Bolster Somaliland’s Determination to Gain Recognition
On November 13, the 1.5 million registered voters of Somaliland Republic in the volatile Horn of Africa region went to the polls to elect a new leader.
Continue reading “Presidential Election will Bolster Somaliland’s Determination to Gain Recognition”
President-elect: Trump Election Campaign Blueprint Aims to Recognize Somaliland
A lengthy document reportedly crafted by members and supporters of the US Republican Party ahead of the upcoming elections hints that if Donald Trump wins, Washington will grant official recognition to the Somaliland Republic
Dubbed “Project 2025: Presidential Transition Project,” the over 900-page document sets out a list of objectives to be accomplished over the presidential nominee’s first 100 days in the Oval Office.
The document states the importance of “the recognition of Somaliland statehood as a hedge against the U.S.’s deteriorating position in Djibouti.”
The presence of a dozen military bases belonging to foreign powers in the tiny nation has been an additional factor in increasingly complicated geopolitics in the Horn of Africa.
During the inaugural Red Sea Security Conference held in Addis Ababa a few months ago, Djiboutian representatives stated that hosting both Chinese and American military bases has posed difficulties as the two powers seek the expulsion of the other.
However, following the recent circulation of the “Project 2025” document on social media, Donald Trump, former president while running for the upcoming election, distanced himself from the document.
In a comment posted on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump stated “I know nothing about Project2025. I have no idea who is behind it. I disagree with some of the things they are saying and some of the things they are saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal. Anything they do, I wish them luck, but I have nothing to do with them.”
Trump reportedly distanced himself from the document following strong backlash from American scholars and politicians. Some of the policies included in the Project 2025 agenda have been advocated for by Republicans for years or backed by Trump himself. These include slashing the education budget and introducing alternative schooling choices, tougher immigration and border laws, as well as cuts to social security programs and advocacy for mass deportation and the construction of a border wall, among others.
Project 2025 was prepared by the Heritage Foundation and other Republican affiliated groups. Various media outlets report the document is the fruit of Trump’s allies and political affiliates.
CNN discovered that at least 140 people who worked under the Trump administration were involved in the crafting of Project 2025. This includes “more than half of the people listed as authors, editors and contributors to “Mandate for Leadership,” the project’s extensive manifesto for overhauling the executive branch,” CNN reported this week.
The list of people with ties to Trump and Project 2025 includes close to 240 individuals ranging from ordinary White House staff members to senior US government officials.
The number is likely higher because many individuals’ online resumes were not available, according to CNN.
“In addition to people who worked directly for Trump, others who participated in Project 2025 were appointed by the former president to independent positions. The extensive overlap between Project 2025 and Trump’s universe of allies, advisers and former staff complicates his efforts to distance himself from the work. Trump’s campaign has sought for months to make clear that Project 2025 doesn’t speak for them amid an intensifying push by President Joe Biden and Democrats to tie the Republican standard bearer to the playbook’s more controversial policies,” reported CNN.
Project 2025 is spearheaded by the Heritage Foundation, but includes an advisory board consisting of more than 100 conservative groups.
The document’s first pillar, an overhaul of the federal government, has drawn the fiercest criticism thus far.
“Called “Mandate for Leadership 2025: The Conservative Promise,” the book builds on a “Mandate for Leadership” first published in January 1981, which sought to serve as a roadmap for Ronald Reagan’s incoming administration,” reports CNN.
The changes outlined in the plan touch on virtually every federal office and agency in the US government.
During his presidency in office, Trump was often part of rows with African leaders. His outright rejection of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was particularly notable.
Analysts observe that even if Trump were to win the election and recognize Somaliland, the decision would be from the US point of interest, which is focused on combating China’s growing influence in Africa
Forecasts for the Somaliland Presidential Election Using Electoral Survey Data
According to recent sources and analyses in Somaliland, the following surveyed polls were conducted
to provide Somalilanders with an overview of the upcoming elections scheduled for November
13, 2024. The figures below were modeled research based, proof display held over the past few
weeks, as well as phone interviews with various citizens across all regions of Somaliland. These
numbers are averaged statistical calculations.
Below are 2024 Somaliland Presidential Election that will be held on November 13th, 2024.
Those numbers are estimated, forecast and predicted from analyses in different sources,
educated and open minded in all regions of Somaliland. I’m emphasizing those numbers are
modeled from statistical analyses (mean, median and average calculations).
According to our analyses, this surveyed poll aims to highlight reasons and arguments presented by
supporters:
Reasons Given to Choose a Party
According to our contacts on the ground, most people base their presidential choice on tribal affiliation. Tribalism remains a significant issue in Somaliland, with politicians exploiting it to fuel polarization among citizens. However, the more educated segment of the population, according to our sources, considers factors like security, international recognition, economic growth, and development in making their choices.
Below chart summarizes these findings:
Following are the most popular parties “URUURO” are the following:
According to Article 9 of the Somaliland Constitution, political parties (“Xisbi”) shall not exceed three (3) parties: “1. The political system of the Republic of Somaliland shall be based on peace, cooperation, democracy, and plurality of political parties. 2. The number of political parties in the Republic of Somaliland shall not exceed three (3). 3. A special law shall determine the procedures for the formation of a political party, but it is unlawful for any political party to be based on regionalism or clannism.”
Our research and analysis indicate that the two main parties, Kulmiye and Wadani, will retain their status as “Xusbi.” Horseed, Kaah, and Hilaac will compete for the third position, potentially replacing UCID.
Let’s examine these three “Urur” closely:
In conclusion, based on information gathered from key political figures and influencers in Somaliland, Horseed, led by Chairman Dirawal, has the potential to become the third official party in the upcoming election on November 13, 2024.
SOMALILAND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION HISTORY:
All figures and data in this report were sourced from the National Election Commission of Somaliland. The first election in Somaliland was held on April 14, 2003, with 488,035 registered voters
2017 SOMALILAND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS:
What does Somaliland historical data tell us today?
According to the charts above, Somaliland voters have spoken:
Author: Abdulkarim Musse Maygag – Toronto – Canada –
abdulkmu@hotmail.com
US Bans Imports of Somaliland Frankincense by Asli Maydi Due to Forced Labor Practice
A Somaliland company that manufactures frankincense, an aromatic resin that the wise men gifted to Jesus in the Bible story of his birth, will see its products confiscated at U.S. ports under sanctions issued Friday. Continue reading “US Bans Imports of Somaliland Frankincense by Asli Maydi Due to Forced Labor Practice”
An Email Interview by Addis Standard with Wadani Figure Reveals Startling Position of the Party on the MoU with Ethiopia
The signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland, a region Somalia’s federal government regards as part of its own territory, has attracted considerable attention in the Horn of Africa. Inked at the start of 2024, the MoU seeks to grant Ethiopia access to the Red Sea in return for the recognition of Somaliland. Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has strongly criticized the agreement, accusing Ethiopia of violating Somalia’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Ethiopia, however, maintains that it has a right to secure access to the sea. Continue reading “An Email Interview by Addis Standard with Wadani Figure Reveals Startling Position of the Party on the MoU with Ethiopia”
Exploring Somaliland’s Unique Clan-based Governance System
Somaliland, an unrecognized state that broke away from Somalia, has carved its own path with a distinct government, currency, and borders. Since 1991, Somaliland has risen from the ruins of civil war, showcasing the resilience and determination of its people. Renowned for their unique culture and rich history, the people of Somaliland have forged stability and peace in the Horn of Africa. Have you ever wondered about the governance system in Somaliland? What makes it unique?
Governance systems vary significantly around the world, shaped by history, religion, and culture. In Somali societies, the unique blend of clan politics forms the foundation of governance, infusing elements of democracy within a traditional framework. This article explores the complex governance system of Somaliland, where clan-ship and traditional leadership play critical roles.
In Somaliland, the clan system is not only a social structure but the foundation of the legal and political system. Somaliland is home to a number of clans, each serving as a fundamental unit of identity and governance. The clan structure aids individuals in recognizing each other and determines political positions and influence. Generally, the clan system in Somaliland is divided into five major clans. These clans hold significant power over political appointments, with the largest clans usually securing key positions such as the presidency and leadership of political parties. Because of this, members of minority clans often find themselves excluded from high-ranking roles, even within the parliament.
Clan identity is embedded in Somaliland society, fostering a sense of superiority among different clans. This system privileges certain individuals based on their clan affiliation, often leading to perceived injustices. The traditional leaders, or clan elders, have considerable power in this structure. Respected as mediators and decision-makers, these elders play central roles in conflict resolution and political nominations. Every candidate for political office is endorsed by these traditional leaders, underlining their critical influence in the political arena.
Central to Somaliland’s governance is the concept of “Xeer,” directly translated as law. Xeer represents the traditional legal system, a set of Somali regulations and laws that clans and elders use to resolve disputes and govern Somali society. While this system demonstrates a strong sense of community and continuity, it also imposes limitations. Many capable individuals find their political aspirations suffocated due to their clan background, as positions of power often remain within the dominant clans. Those who do hold political office face pressure to favor their clan members with opportunities and jobs, carrying on inequality.
The imbalance in representation and opportunity across clans can lead to accusations of favoritism, escalating potential conflicts. The issue of equitable chances is clear, with certain sectors dominated by particular clans, excluding others from participating fully. Many young people in Somaliland, despite being well-educated and capable of significantly contributing to the society, often face challenges in securing jobs and opportunities if they lack connections to major clans or influential relatives. As a result, many are forced to seek employment abroad to support their families and themselves. By boosting the voices of the younger generation, particularly in politics, Somaliland can unlock its potential for growth and development.
Somaliland’s journey towards governance uniquely intertwines traditional practices with modern aspirations. Despite challenges posed by the clan-based system, there are signs of evolving perspectives. The younger generation, educated and globally connected, increasingly advocates for inclusivity and meritocracy. They envision a future where leadership is defined by capability rather than clan affiliation. Initiatives promoting civic education and youth empowerment are gaining traction, fostering dialogue on reforming governance norms. As Somaliland navigates these dual pressures of tradition and progress, the prospect of a more equitable and inclusive society beckons, one where every citizen, regardless of clan, can contribute to the nation’s promising future.
Can this system change? Given the challenges and inequalities resulting from the clan-based governance system, one wonders if Somaliland will evolve towards a fairer, more inclusive model. Will the younger generation, with their aspirations for equality and justice, rise to reform this age-old structure? The future holds the answer, as Somaliland struggles with the tension between tradition and the pursuit of a more equitable society.
About The Author
In Somaliland’s Quest for Recognition, President Bihi is the Choice
Less than three weeks to go until election day, President Muse Bihi has a good chance to be re-elected. I like President Muse Bihi because he is an unapologetic nationalist Somalilander who puts Somaliland interest first. That alone makes him an exemplary president of Somaliland Republic. Continue reading “In Somaliland’s Quest for Recognition, President Bihi is the Choice”
Fixing Africa’s Governance Crisis Must Come First
African leaders may be able to learn from the forthcoming elections in Somaliland, which are set for November 13, 2024. For the rest of Africa, Somaliland’s peaceful transitions of power and subsequent presidential elections can serve as a model for effective governance.
African leaders – and their counterparts in Western countries and international organizations such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank – often misdiagnose the continent’s development challenges. More than increased aid, debt relief, and foreign investment, Africa needs to resolve its governance crisis – the source of all its problems.
The continent must focus on developing the competence required to govern itself effectively and drive its own development trajectory. That means boosting state capacity at the most basic level to enable African governments to secure borders, raise revenue through taxation, and provide social services and other public goods. Without these reforms, Africa’s countries will continue to fail to deliver stability and broad-based prosperity, and most external financing will continue to be mis-allocated and misappropriated, resulting in sub-optimal outcomes for the poor. For starters, the continent’s many “ungoverned spaces” have allowed terrorist groups – from Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in Nigeria and the Sahel to Al-Shabaab in East Africa – to proliferate. They have also nurtured large-scale conflicts in Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, and elsewhere. To protect their citizens against violence, African governments must regain full control of their territories.
African governments must also improve their tax systems, the anchor of any modern economy. The ratio of tax revenue to GDP is mostly in the high single and low double-digit percentages on the continent, significantly lower than in most European and Asian countries. The resulting budget shortfalls have fueled a penchant for foreign borrowing that has pushed some African countries into debt distress.
This state of affairs reflects two main factors. First, many Africans are reluctant to pay taxes, because they do not trust their government to use budget revenue to finance public goods. Too often, corrupt politicians and officials raid the state’s coffers. Second, many African countries have large informal economies, with most people and businesses operating outside the tax net. Widening that net would go a long way toward fixing the problem, and is a better alternative to levying high rates on a narrow base. But African countries must also improve their ability to provide basic services such as health care, education, potable water, and sanitation. Most of the continent’s governments, however, worship at the altar of GDP, using it as their main measure of economic progress. As a result, Africa’s resource-rich and commodity-dependent countries fail to achieve the kind of broad-based, sustainable growth that lifts millions out of poverty.
Paradoxically, the shift from military dictatorships to multiparty democracy in Africa over the past three decades has not yielded better results, because political power has become unmoored from good governance. African leaders now fixate on winning, by hook or by crook, conducting ritualistic elections that often lack transparency and truly independent monitors. Moreover, politics in many African countries is shaped by ethnic tensions, owing to the legacy of arbitrarily drawn colonial boundaries. Voters tend to decide whom to support based on candidates’ sectarian identities – and their willingness to give handouts. High levels of illiteracy only add to the challenges that democracy faces on the continent. If Africa is to strengthen state capacity, it needs competent technocratic governments and strong institutions. Elected politicians must resist the temptation to pack agencies that ought to be independent and apolitical with unqualified, sycophantic party hacks. Equally important, skills that are often absent or lacking among the continent’s politicians and officials must be established at scale. These include knowledge of economics, public policy, program evaluation and monitoring, data analytics, statistics, risk management, urban policy, local government administration, public-private partnerships, and international political economy.
Home-grown academic institutions are starting to fill this human-capital gap. One of the most promising new entries is the African School of Governance, of which I am president. Located in Kigali, Rwanda, this professional graduate school offers public-policy and leadership education and research programs that are distinctly African. Established by continental leaders, including Rwandan President Paul Kagame and former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, and with support from the MasterCard Foundation, the university aims to train politicians and bureaucrats to overcome the obstacles impeding Africa’s progress on achieving sustainable growth. African leaders must now focus on preparing those who will take the baton from them. They and anyone else who supports Africa’s aspirations should support independent initiatives – like the African School of Governance – that seek to address the roots of the continent’s development challenges. The uncomfortable truth is that Africa lags behind the rest of the world largely because it is poorly governed. Blaming other factors – whether the legacy of colonialism or the influence of external actors – is merely an excuse for inaction.
Author: Kingsley Moghalu, a former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, is President of the African School of Governance, an independent, pan-African graduate school in Kigali, Rwanda
President Bihi Forbids Use of Public Resources for Election Campaigning
Ahead of the November 13 presidential election, Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi has issued an order that forbids the use of military personnel, government servants, and public property in election campaigning.
The directive, which was made public on Friday evening, directs government representatives to guarantee that political parties have equal access to government resources and the media throughout the campaign.
The Minister of Information, Awareness, and Culture was instructed by the president to ensure that state-run media provide fair coverage of political parties and groups. The Minister of Internal Affairs is also responsible for protecting public and candidate safety during campaign events and making sure that campaign venues are used fairly.
According to the directive, no government employees or public resources, including the military, may be used in electoral campaigns.
The order is issued as Somaliland’s official presidential campaign gets underway. With the recent resignations of two deputy ministers indicating a change in political allegiances, tensions are on the rise. Former members of the ruling Kulmiye Party, both officials have now sided with opposition candidate Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi (Irro), demanding a change in leadership.
Continue reading “Mustafe Qodax: A Mole Inside Ruling Party Kulmiye”
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