Category: Op-Ed

Somalia President Infringing Ethiopian Sovereignty by Vowing Liberating Somali Region

Somalia President Infringing Ethiopian Sovereignty by Vowing Liberating Somali Region

Within the vast tapestry of history, the steadfast truth endures as a beacon through the passage of time. Yet, there are those who endeavor to warp this truth, reshaping it to bolster their contemporary and prospective political agendas, often selectively forsaking their historical stances. This phenomenon is acutely observable in the digital age, where the annals of history are readily accessible. Amidst my morning coffee, I found myself engrossed in the political narratives of the Horn of Africa, with particular attention to Somalia and Ethiopia.

The rhetoric of President Hassan Sheik of the Somali Federal Government was notably compelling. His remarks on the new taxation policies introduced by the Federal Government have incited widespread public disquiet and opposition from several regional authorities. Nonetheless, it was his commentary on the recent Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Somaliland and the Ethiopian Federal Government that seized my focus—a development that has significantly deteriorated diplomatic relations and initiated a complex diplomatic journey, including the involvement of the Foreign Minister of Turkey. Despite the impasse in the dialogues between Somalia and Ethiopia, there remains an undercurrent of optimism that these historically linked nations will navigate towards a mutual understanding.

President Hassan Sheik addressed the topic of the Somali Region of Ethiopia, depicting it as an enduring territorial dispute. He alluded to the potential re-examination of historical conflicts to reclaim the region from Ethiopian sovereignty, if they don’t abandon the MOU and respect the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of the Somali. While I abstain from exploring the intricate narrative of Ethiopian sovereignty over the Ogaden Region, it is revealing that he considers this area as a chess piece in political gambits rather than an inseparable segment of a unified Somalia. The terms “Somali Region” and “Ogaden Region” are utilized synonymously for clarity.

Ethiopia’s significance as a linchpin in the Horn of Africa is indisputable, with its influence poised to shape the region’s stability and prosperity, hinged on the guidance of a harmonious and skilled leadership. Its strategic position, burgeoning population, and escalating economic influence establish it as a powerhouse in the African geo-political arena. The internal harmony of Ethiopia is not merely a national concern but a pivotal ingredient for regional peace. We must eschew any delight in Ethiopia’s difficulties and instead advocate for a resilient and prosperous Ethiopia.

A robust and thriving Ethiopia is essential to fortifying stability and spurring economic growth across its neighboring regions and the broader continent. It is our shared obligation to strive towards the realization of this aspiration.

Ethiopia, a kaleidoscope of ethnic groups with the Somali community as a significant element, encompasses an extensive territory of 300,000 square kilometers, making it the second-largest region. The Ogaden Region is renowned for its astute political and intellectual leaders, a culturally rich legacy, and venerated elders who have historically resisted oppressive regimes.

President Hassan’s recent declaration of the region as an unresolved matter has ignited a plethora of questions, particularly concerning his intentions and the justification for Somalia’s current claim. His conspicuous absence during the region’s most trying times, characterized by destruction, displacement, and rampant human rights abuses, raises doubts about his current motives. His previous visit to the Somali Region, where he fraternized with infamous tyrants, sharply contrasts with the Ogaden Region’s most harrowing period of suffering. Is he now a changed man, or does he see an opportunity to propagate a deceptive tale, seeking to mobilize the Somalis behind a vacuous and poorly conceived strategy under the guise of a collective menace posed by Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s leadership?

The emotional intensity is particularly pronounced among the youth, following 33 years of erratic governance. The recent political advancements in Somalia are now jeopardized by an indecisive leadership, which appears more invested in commercial pursuits than in nurturing the incremental progress made over the past decade. The harsh reality of truth is particularly distressing for those who shun its revelation. Somalia’s principal foe resides within its own borders. It is crucial to concentrate on internal affairs rather than entrusting its sovereignty to external powers like Egypt, Eritrea, Turkey, and others, which could jeopardize the nation’s existence in the forthcoming two decades if the present course is maintained.

Reflecting on Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s tenure as Prime Minister of Ethiopia reveals his visionary approach to the Somali Region, also known as the Ogaden Region. Under his governance, the region has witnessed an unprecedented level of autonomy. The onus of addressing regional concerns lies with the local leadership, reflecting the central government’s trust in their governance. The region has enjoyed a period of peace and development, significantly attributed to the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), whose adherence to the peace agreement with the Ethiopian Federal Government has been instrumental in the region’s progress. Their political resilience, despite external interference, is noteworthy.

As discerning stewards of our future, we must remain alert. We must guard against those who disguise their exploitative ambitions as liberator endeavors. The annals of history remind us that individuals like Mr. Hassan of Somalia have lacked the vision and sincerity to see the Ogaden Region prosper.

The Somali Region is charting a path of optimism and exemplary, aspiring to be a model of peace and prosperity for the Horn of Africa. It is our collective responsibility to protect the peace our people have relished over the last seven years and to continue building upon a foundation of enduring peace for our region and nation.

As we navigate towards the pinnacle of good governance, we face the enduring obstacles of nepotism and corruption. However, if we unite against those who seek to use us for their transient political gains, we can overcome these challenges and lay the groundwork for a future characterized by integrity and collective well-being.

Professor Mohammed Ahmed is board chairman of OWS Development Fund, a non-government and non-profit civil society organization based in Jigjiga, Somali region, Ethiopia. He can be reached at Maahmed@owsdf.org

US Neither A Beacon of Democracy nor Human Rights Advocator

US Neither A Beacon of Democracy nor Human Rights Advocator

One of the most shocking and disgusting scenes the world has ever witnessed in recent years was the standing ovation accorded to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by US Congressmen and women when he was invited to speak to the Congress last month. This blatant display of racism and impunity by Continue reading “US Neither A Beacon of Democracy nor Human Rights Advocator”

The Passive Audience & Dishonest Senior Leadership of Wadani Party

The Passive Audience & Dishonest Senior Leadership of Wadani Party

Even though I have no particular affection for the Wadani Party, it is seen as a crucial component of Somaliland’s fledgling democracy. But instead of trying to counter Kulmiye with bold politics and win over the hearts and minds of Somaliland citizens, its senior officials are burying the party with a white shroud in a graveyard. Before it’s too late, its elites, financiers, strategists, and core supporters ought to take action and save it. Continue reading “The Passive Audience & Dishonest Senior Leadership of Wadani Party”

South Africa Should be 2nd in Line Recognizing Somaliland, Following Ethiopia’s Historic Move

South Africa Should be 2nd in Line Recognizing Somaliland, Following Ethiopia’s Historic Move

This article examines why South Africa could be the second country or first-line countries that recognizes Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state after Ethiopia and what the push is to include those countries. Continue reading “South Africa Should be 2nd in Line Recognizing Somaliland, Following Ethiopia’s Historic Move”

Ethiopian Naval Base in Somaliland: Strategically Important for Regional Security

Ethiopian Naval Base in Somaliland: Strategically Important for Regional Security

The geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa has witnessed a transformative development with Somaliland and Ethiopia’s announcement of a potential Ethiopian naval base in Somaliland. This strategic move is not only aimed at enhancing maritime security in the Gulf of Aden but also addressing broader Continue reading “Ethiopian Naval Base in Somaliland: Strategically Important for Regional Security”

Somaliland’s MoU with Ethiopia is Widely Supported

Somaliland’s MoU with Ethiopia is Widely Supported

The signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland that granted the former access to the Gulf of Aden, adjacent to the Red Sea, has sparked significant discussions among scholars and policymakers. Continue reading “Somaliland’s MoU with Ethiopia is Widely Supported”

The Turkish-Somali Agreement: A Calculated Adventure or a Step into the Unknown?

The Turkish-Somali Agreement: A Calculated Adventure or a Step into the Unknown?

On February 8, 2024, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler and his Somali counterpart Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur signed a framework agreement for economic and military cooperation in Ankara between Türkiye and Somalia. This agreement is exceptional and unprecedented for Türkiye with any country. An expanded agreement provides Ankara with almost complete land, sea, and air military influence over Somalia. Continue reading “The Turkish-Somali Agreement: A Calculated Adventure or a Step into the Unknown?”

‘Top Secret’ Talks in Nairobi on Somaliland MoU Saga

‘Top Secret’ Talks in Nairobi on Somaliland MoU Saga

Presidents Ismail Omar Guelleh and William Ruto are facilitating “highly confidential” talks in Nairobi in a bid to find a way out for the impasse between Ethiopia and Somalia, sources at the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) disclosed to The Reporter. Continue reading “‘Top Secret’ Talks in Nairobi on Somaliland MoU Saga”

Is Mogadishu Shopping For Protection Post-ATMIS Troops?

Is Mogadishu Shopping For Protection Post-ATMIS Troops?

It has been less than three months since the signing of the MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland, but the controversial deal has already contributed substantially to increased tensions in the region, and set off a diplomatic spat between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu. Continue reading “Is Mogadishu Shopping For Protection Post-ATMIS Troops?”

Interests of Turkey & Somalia Overlap A Little, Their Deal Is No Game Changer

Interests of Turkey & Somalia Overlap A Little, Their Deal Is No Game Changer

 

A recent defense deal between Somalia and Turkey has great significance for Somalia and the region’s security. The agreement, which covers both land and sea, aims to enhance defense cooperation between Turkey and Somalia. It includes the possibility of Turkey providing both training and equipment for a Somali navy.

Its near-term impact should, however, not be exaggerated.

Instead, it should be understood as a good-faith agreement signed between asymmetric powers whose interests overlap a little, at present. My research on the geopolitics and security agreements over the past few decades covering Turkey, Somalia, and the wider East African region leads to my analysis that Mogadishu and Ankara entered into the agreement for different reasons.

Turkey, the more powerful partner, signed the agreement to bolster its reputation as a security partner and an important actor in sub-Saharan Africa. It wants to cement its role as a critical player in Somalia’s future and improve its international visibility and prestige domestically.

Turkey plans to expand its training role to the maritime realm in Somalia and complement its terrestrial military training facility in Mogadishu. It may also provide — but is unlikely to sell (given Somalia’s severe budgetary constraints) — arms to Somalia now that the arms embargo has been lifted.

 

 

Somalia, as the less powerful partner, signed the agreement to build its defense capacities, particularly offshore. It entered into the deal eventually to gain the capabilities to project force throughout the territories it claims.

Mogadishu’s means to project force in its territorial waters are currently limited. Hence, the illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing and piracy.

Somalia’s leaders likely hope that Turkey will be able to train and equip Somali soldiers and sailors. This would give Mogadishu the capability to project limited force and thus better police its territories, both maritime and terrestrial. In doing so, it hopes to eventually gain a monopoly on the use of force within its borders, including semi-autonomous regions such as Jubaland and the de facto-independent state of Somaliland.

Limited Scope

In my view, there are limitations to what Turkey can achieve through this agreement in terms of its ambitions in the region. Even if the agreement were fully implemented, Ankara would not be involved in confronting Mogadishu’s rivals (including Ethiopia) within the region.

In short, the agreement is limited in scope and in terms of capabilities being offered. It will need to be long-term to accomplish anything close to affecting political and military outcomes on the ground — inside and outside Somalia.

It does not, in my view, represent the beginning of a new system of regional alliances that will pit Turkey and Somalia along with Egypt against Ethiopia, Somaliland, and possibly other regional states such as the United Arab Emirates.

The Background

The Turkey-Somalia agreement should be seen in the light of what the deal gives each signatory — not as part of a new system of regional alliances that are adjusting to the deal signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland at the beginning of 2024.

Under this agreement, Ethiopia will get a 50-year lease on a strip of land on Somaliland’s Red Sea coast for naval and commercial maritime use, and access to the Berbera port. In return, Addis Ababa would recognize Somaliland’s independence from Somalia.

This deal has set off a diplomatic storm in the region. It has been opposed by Somalia and Turkey, as well as the U.S., China, and Egypt. The agreement is certainly important. It has the potential to make an impact on the political and security fabric of the region as Ethiopia may eventually have a maritime security and commercial footprint in the Gulf of Aden.

These two recent deals in the Horn of Africa, however, are driven by the national interests of Somalia, Ethiopia, and Somaliland. They speak to their primary interests — territory and sovereignty.

The genesis of engagement and agreements with external actors has come from one or more of these Horn of Africa states. This was similarly the case with the 2017 Berbera Port deal between Ethiopia, Somaliland, and Dubai’s DP World. It was the case with Qatar’s engagement with Somalia on electoral politics, also in 2017.

It should come as little surprise that the region’s states — like others in the international state system — work to further their interests in their own backyard.

For its part, Turkey’s interests, like those of other foreign powers in the Horn of Africa, are generally opportunistic. Their intent is short-term gains. In my view, Turkey doesn’t have military interests in the Horn of Africa, and Ankara has limited capabilities even if it did.

This isn’t a criticism of Turkey. All states have limited capabilities and they generally prioritize them — especially when it comes to security architecture — close to home, where it matters. Turkey is no different.

No Gunboat Diplomacy

Turkey will be a good partner for Somalia and vice versa. They have a decade of history together and the agreement gives both Ankara and Mogadishu something of value.

In Turkey, Somalia has found a capable partner that can offer training, expertise, and some arms. And this means that the context was only partially about the recent Ethiopia-Somaliland deal.

Mogadishu’s leaders are under no illusion.

They know their own projection of limited power against what they see as encroachments on Somalia’s terrestrial and maritime territories is years in the future. But so is Ethiopia’s floating of a navy off the coast of Somaliland.

We should, therefore, not expect Turkish-trained and equipped Somali troops to be invading Somaliland, or Turkish ships crewed by Somali sailors to be skirmishing with Ethiopia in the Gulf of Aden any time soon. Instead, we should understand the agreement as one among many that may become embodied as something of strategic value only much later.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Brendon J. Cannon is an assistant professor at Khalifa University.