Somaliland Opportunity: Ethiopia’s Pivoting away from US

The rivalry between the US – on one side – and Russia- China alliance – on the other side – over who should be the global power broker has erupted lately in the Horn of Africa region – that is vital to security, stability, and global trade.

The present portrait of the region is geared towards China-Russia alliance with enormous influence in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Sudan, Kenya, and Eritrea, as American Administration now plays a catching up game with its appointment of Ambassador Mike Hammer – Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa

For instance, the current attitude and direction of Ethiopian government’s foreign policy seem to send a signal that the administration of PM Abiy Ahmed’s trust in America has evaporated and the political backing once offered to him is no longer there since the onset of Tigrinya ethnic’s uprisings. The actions of PM Abiy’s administration, relating to bold engagements with Russia and China, have embodied this sentiment.

On the other hand, President Biden’s administration might have clearly got this change of heart coming out of Addis Ababa, when US renewed its interest in Somalia and started engaging separately with Somaliland.

The privately-owned Addis Herald published on 20 June 2022 an article titled “Russia to Build Closer Ties with Africa During the Second Russia-Africa Summit as It Pivots Away from the West.”

The second Russia-Africa summit is scheduled to take place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia during October-November 2022. This lengthy article by an unnamed author argues that Vladimir Putin’s goal is “to undermine US hegemony and to gain international recognition for his regime.” The author adds that “African nations have been among Russia’s most loyal supporters since the conflict in Ukraine started.”

Modern Diplomacy published on 30 June 2022 a commentary titled “Russia Readies to Gather African Leaders for 2nd Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia” by Kester Kenn Klomegah.

Russia is laying the groundwork for its second summit meeting with African countries in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that in these difficult times, the strategic partnership with Africa has become a priority of Russian foreign policy.

The Ethiopian News Agency published on 28 June 2022 an article titled “Prosperity Party, Chinese Communist Party Agree to Bolster Strategic Partnership.”

Meeting virtually, the vice president of Ethiopia’s ruling Prosperity Party and a senior official of the Communist Party of China agreed to strengthen their relationship, adding that practical actions will be launched soon.

The Defense Post posted on 27 June 2022 an article titled “Ethiopia Shows Off Combat Drones at Military Ceremony.”

At a graduation ceremony for military pilots, the Ethiopian army displayed Turkish Bayraktar TB2 and Chinese Wing Loong 1 combat drones.

The 30-minute China in Africa Podcast program for 25 June 2022 was titled “How Did China Do in Its First Horn of Africa Peace Conference?” with Aly Verjee, US Institute of Peace, interviewed by Cobus van Staden.

This two-day conference took place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia under the direction of China’s Horn of Africa special envoy, Xue Bing.  Senior government officials represented Horn of Africa countries; there were no non-state actors.

America is desperately eager to win a reliable compatible partner and a friend in the region. Therefore, an extraordinary chance for make or break moment exists right before Somaliland which the US government is extremely keen on, and the outcome of this transaction greatly would depend on how Somaliland distinctively merchandises its case from that of Somalia.

The decision for the US to have a naval base and presence in the Red Sea is well known and reported by the world media. For instance:

A further clue that the US is looking to reinforce its influence in the Red Sea region was found in an article distributed on May 18, 2022 by The South China Morning Post. It reported that the US Navy was hoping to get access to Somaliland's Berbera port, situated in the strategic Gulf of Aden at the entry to the Red Sea, as an alternative to its army installation in Djibouti, which is progressively under Chinese impact.

As long as Somalia’s failed state isn’t fully rebuilt, the United States cannot coexist with it in its current form. The major goals of the United States in South Somalia at the moment are to maintain the precarious peace and reduce Al Shabab’s administrative and military power so that the region does not develop into another hotbed of international terrorism. The American presence in South Somalia won’t act as a catalyst to magically change South Somalia into a functioning, viable state as long as Somali players cannot agree on political solutions. Hence, the sole United States’ interest in Somalia is to weaken Al-Shabaab and prevent South Somalia to fall into the China influence trap by filling in the void.

When it comes to cooperating with the US and addressing its regional aspirations to counter the Russian-Chinese alliance advances, Somaliland has the stronger position and the bigger influence.
Somaliland must negotiate the current events and developments in the Horn of Africa region with caution and ingenuity. Its ambition for recognition might benefit by doing so. By persuading South Somalia to come to its senses, accept the dissolution of the failed unification, and forge a new course for herself, the American administration may emerge as the wise-man who can reach a breakthrough resolution to the Somaliland case for recognition.