TPLF-OLA: Friends In Need, not Friends Indeed
On 5 November 2021, nine of Ethiopia’s rebel groups announced an alliance in Washington, DC with the aim of unseating the current government.
Known as the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces (UFEFC), the newly formed alliance has received an equal share of endorsement and consternation
As unwavering as the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) coalition might appear on the surface, beneath it lies a precarious foundation. Abiy Ahmed might have ironically succeeded in uniting the two rival rebel groups, but what divides them far outweighs that which unites them. During the TPLF rule of Ethiopia from the 1990s to 2010s, the OLA, which is the armed wing of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), received the full military wrath of the Ethiopian government. The OLA was banned in the country, and hundreds of people were arrested, killed or driven out of Ethiopia on suspicion of being alleged members or supporters of the organization.
When Abiy resumed power in 2018, his political reforms appealed to the OLF. They laid down arms in exchange for more inclusive political participation. But that optimism soon evaporated when Abiy’s government cracked down on demonstrators following the assassination of the famous Oromo singer Hachalu Hundessa and imprisoned two prominent Oromo political leaders, Mohammed Jawar and Misha Chiri. The fallout from those events sent the OLA back to the jungle and reignited their resistance.
The OLA has never been in doubt about the Ethiopian government’s unfair treatment of the Oromo people given the historical dominance of Tigrayans and Amharas in the political system. As a result, the group has always advocated not for a united Ethiopia, but more for an independent Oromo State. Amidst the talk of marching together with TPLF toward the capital, an OLA spokesperson stated that “[the] operation will be spearheaded by the OLA,” once again revealing the group’s deep skepticism in the TPLF’s ability to bring about a new, free and fair political system. The OLA might find its marriage of convenience with TPLF resourceful at the moment, but their relationship is unlikely to remain the same if they take power in Addis.