Alarm bells as Somalia’s new president sours relationship with Ethiopia
The new government in Somalia that won elections held in May has got off to a rocky political start in its relations with the relatively powerful and influential neighbor, Ethiopia.
Ethiopia enjoyed warm relations with the previous government in Somalia. But recent incidents have soured relations. First was that Somalia’s new president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, bypassed his Ethiopian counterpart Abiy Ahmed during visits to regional capitals in May, June and July.
Then, during a visit to Cairo, Hassan Sheikh waded into the controversy between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Egyptian ruler Abdel Fattah el-Sisi hinted at a press conference that Somalia and Egypt saw eye-to-eye on the contentious dam.
The final stroke appears to be Hassan Sheikh’s unexpected decision to appoint a former Al-Shabaab commander, Mukhtar Roobow Mansuur, to Somalia’s new cabinet. Mansuur was the former deputy of the militant group Al-Shabaab. This appointment was met with a mixture of shock and disbelief at home and in the region and beyond.
The fiercest reaction came from Ethiopia, which dreads Al-Shabaab and its radicalized elements. Successive Ethiopian governments have always expected a menace from Somalia. Addis Ababa was nevertheless taken by surprise when Al-Shabaab launched a cross-border attack on Ethiopian forces in late July. It showed that the militant group could easily dent Ethiopia’s capability to control the border with southern Somalia
Ethiopia’s reaction
Ethiopian authorities responded to Mansuur’s appointment by engaging directly with leaders of Somalia’s semi-autonomous regions instead of with the central government. They embarked on approaching Southwest, which now has a political tension with the new government in Mogadishu over the recent dispensation of power in the cabinet. Like the Ethiopian authorities, Southwest authorities were unacceptable to Mansuur’s ministerial appointment.
Abdiaziz Lafta-Gareen, the president of Southwest, was flown to Addis Ababa by the Ethiopian army. He was reported to have held secret talks with the Ethiopian military intelligence at an army base outside Addis Ababa.
Lafta-Gareen is a staunch ally of former Somali president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed “Farmaajo” and his former chief spy Fahad Yasin Haji Daher.
Lafta-Gareen then flew to Jigjiga, the regional capital of Ethiopia’s Somali region, where he met the region’s president Mustafe Muhumed Omer, who distrusts the past links between Hassan Sheikh and the deposed Tigray leaders in northern Ethiopia.
Lafta-Gareen, together with other regional presidents, including Said Abdullahi Deni of Puntland in northeast Somalia, will form an Ethiopian-supported strong opposition to the new government. This will make it harder for the government to consolidate its power and build a peaceful state.