Ethiopia Mulling Expanding Its Border to the Red Sea
Ethiopia, too, may soon be on the warpath. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is a failed leader who has run his country into the ground. For two years, he waged genocide against Ethiopia’s Tigray community and, in that war’s aftermath, he continued to pit different ethnic groups against each other. His next actions he tore from the dictators’ playbook: Spark new conflict to distract the public.
In a televised speech to lawmakers this weekend, Abiy argued that Ethiopia must acquire a Red Sea port, either by negotiation or force. “A population of 150 million can’t live in a geographic prison,” he said. “The Red Sea and the Nile will determine Ethiopia. They are interlinked with Ethiopia and will be the fundamentals that will either bring in Ethiopia’s development or bring about its demise,” he explained. Previously, he spoke of the need to create a Navy, a curious move for a resource-strapped, landlocked country. He also sought to compel Somaliland to forfeit its port of Zayla [Saylac], south of Djibouti, a drive he only backed away from after it became public. In practice, Somaliland remains the likely target given China’s presence in Djibouti and Abiy’s immoral alliance with Eritrea.
Both Armenia and Somaliland are democracies surrounded by larger and more powerful autocracies. Armenia nevertheless seeks to pivot away from Russia while Somaliland has dismissed China in favor of Taiwan. Both suffer for their principle. Nagorno-Karabakh may soon be free of its indigenous Christians for the first time in more than 1700 years, while the United States stood aside as China sponsored a terrorist insurgency in Somaliland and remained silent as the Chinese ambassador to Somalia subsequently took a victory lap. Blinken continues to engage Armenia not on its own merits, but only through the lens of balance with Azerbaijan. Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Iran continue to squeeze Armenia while Somaliland must worry about aggression by Somalia and Ethiopia.
America seeks to prevent wider human tragedy, such as in Somalia, Bosnia, Syria, or Libya. Aliyev and Abiy should understand that if they seek an irredentist war, they may like Putin embroil themselves in a conflict from which they will see no victory and they will not be able to extricate themselves. Both may be too blinded by ambition and ego to recognize the precipice upon which they sit.
Aliyev and Abiy see America distracted and openly see an opportunity to fulfill lifelong ambition.
If Biden wants to prevent war, then, he should dispatch Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin first to Armenia and then to Somaliland. In Somaliland, Austin might discuss leasing space in Berbera as a base for US ships and aircraft.
The question for Biden is now whether he will act proactively and effectively, or whether his legacy will be one of weakness, surrender, chaos, and sacrifice of democracies to their autocratic neighbors.
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