Somalia Rushes to Renewing Alliance with Egypt and Eritrea as Ethiopia-Somalia Deal Fails
The agreement between Ethiopia and Somalia, which was mediated by the Turkiye to put a stop to hostilities and arrange for Ethiopia’s access to the sea, has reportedly failed miserably.
Fearing the implementation of Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland, the Somali president, who is unconcerned with the deteriorating situation in Somalia, has taken international excursions that reflect the worsening relations with Ethiopia.
Following the African Intelligence report on Thursday, the story garnered media attention across a wide range of outlets. According to sources, the deal fell through when Somalia refused to grant Ethiopia sea access, with the exception of a commercial access agreement in southern Somalia.
Regarding the news, the Somali government has not made any formal remarks or statements. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Ethiopia has also made no comments. However, there appears to be circumstantial evidence that could trigger questions if the Ankara Declaration is still alive.
Over the course of four days, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the president of Somalia, met with Egyptian President Abdul Fetah Al-Sisi in Cairo before traveling to Ankara to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Video footage of Hassan Sheikh receiving a state reception at the Al-Calamayn palace in Cairo was posted by Villa Somalia on its social media website on July 7. The specifics of the meeting between the two presidents were not made public. In August 2024, when Somalia became hostile toward Ethiopia following the Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland, Egypt and Somalia forged a military agreement. Additionally, there was a bilateral agreement that sent 10,000 Egyptian troops to Somalia, including as part of the African Union peacekeeping effort.
Hassan Sheikh met Erdoğan in Ankara on July 11 and was given a state greeting. They talked on “items like strengthening the strategic relations between the two countries, with a particular focus on boosting security cooperation and eliminating Khawaarij,” according to Villa Somalia.
Due to national security forces, Ethiopia has been against the Egyptian military’s participation in Somalia. Due to its assistance of rebel organizations, Egypt has been associated with the proxy war in Ethiopia for at least fifty years.
Ethiopia and Somalia seemed to have put their differences aside after the Ankara Agreement, and there are definite indications of what seems to be cooperation. Ethiopia was visited by Hassan Shiekh in January 2025. And in February 2025, Abiy traveled to Somalia. Additionally, Ethiopia agreed to sign a bilateral military agreement that would allow it to send thousands of troops to Somalia in addition to its current 2500 troops participating in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).
By signing a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a sovereign country that seems to be on the verge of receiving recognition as an independent state, for which it has been advocating for more than thirty years, Ethiopia has been accused by Somalia of violating its sovereignty. Ethiopia is thought to be one of the nations that would acknowledge Somaliland. What went wrong with Somalia-Ethiopia rapprochement policies and initiatives may become clearer in the coming weeks.