Somaliland’s Persistent Ignorance on How Interests Shape Foreign Policy
Discussion on why Qatar and Turkey support the Mogadishu-based government, and this will likely be a very important note before the Presidential election.
In 2012, Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund (Qatar Investment Authority – QIA) acquired a 5% stake in Royal Dutch Shell, one of the largest petroleum companies, headquartered in both London and the Netherlands.
This acquisition was strategic for Qatar, making QIA the largest single shareholder in Shell.
Since 2006, Shell Petroleum has invested over $20 billion in Qatar’s gas operations, solidifying its position as the country’s largest investor.
Shell initially began exploring oil in Somalia in the 1950s but withdrew when the country descended into civil war in 1991. What many don’t realize is that Shell still owns 50 oil blocks in Somalia, stretching from Mogadishu to Marka, covering an area of 50,000 km².
Over the years, some Somalia parliamentarians have proposed cancelling all oil agreements between Somalia and foreign companies, which raised concerns within Shell and other international firms about potential contract cancellations.
Given Shell’s partnership with Qatar and QIA’s stake in Shell company, a key meeting between Shell and Qatar led to the decision that Qatar should support the Mogadishu government to protect Shell’s interests in Somalia.
Since Shell’s Somalia assets, including the 50 oil blocks, remained on its balance sheet, with revenues tied to these assets and traded as stocks, Qatar’s involvement became crucial to safeguarding Shell’s position. This relationship was driven purely by strategic and economic interests—something many Somalia officials were unaware of.
In 2014, I took on the role of regional director and consultant for an oil company based in Australia and the UAE, searching for assets in Somalia, Somaliland, Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Tanzania. The company had significant historical data on petroleum and gas reserves in both Somaliland and Somalia.
During this time, I attended a meeting at Shell’s headquarters in The Hague, which included senior ministers from seven African countries. It was there that I learned of the U.S. State Department’s involvement, actively working to protect U.S. oil companies’ interests in Somalia, including ExxonMobil.
Despite Somalia’s status as a failed state, governed from Villa Somalia in Mogadishu, these powerful corporations continue to influence foreign policy that support Somalia.
As for Turkey, President Erdoğan’s first visit to Mogadishu was framed as a goodwill mission. However, the reality was more strategic: the companies operating Mogadishu’s port and airport had direct connections to Erdoğan’s family, turning these ventures into highly profitable businesses.
Additionally, Turkey has expanded its influence across Africa, gaining popularity despite Turkey never directly or indirectly engaging in combat against Al-Shabaab in Somalia.
Like Qatar, Turkey’s involvement in Somalia is primarily driven by economic and strategic interests, not altruism. It is disheartening that Somaliland still does not fully grasp how interests shape foreign policy. Over the past seven years, I have written hundreds of articles, particularly in the last two years, highlighting these issues and similar. Yet, Somaliland remains at a crossroads, hesitant to seek advice on how geo-strategy is formed.
The next three months will be crucial for Somaliland, and I would strongly advise the presidential candidates to accept the outcome of the upcoming election for the sake of the country’s survival.
One of the reasons Las Anod was attacked is that Genel Energy announced the drilling of oil blocks in Odweyne and Togdheer.
Meanwhile, the Somalia government recently declared Qatar’s involvement in Hol-Hol. Without diving into further details, the next president of Somaliland must understand how foreign policy is shaped by strategic interests and must seek the guidance of experienced individuals while forming a capable team to manage the nation’s affairs.
Somalia remains influential on the global stage because its leaders recognize that foreign policy is driven by interests. It is also a fact that the UAE and DP World have invested in Somaliland, but they have not lobbied for Somaliland on the global stage in the same way that Qatar and Turkey have advocated for Somalia. There may be many reasons for this, but exploring them would require 100 pages of findings and opinions.