On January 1st, 2024, Ethiopia and Somaliland announced a historic Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) which promises to reconfigure the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa. The MoU grants Ethiopia access to the sea, in which it will lease 20 kilometers of coastline. In return, Ethiopia has agreed to recognize Somaliland, which also is due to receive a stake in Ethiopian Airlines.

This agreement has significant implications for the foreign policy of Ethiopia towards Somalia, as it prioritizes its interests and those of Somaliland over historical ties with Somalia. The deal has been met with opposition from the Somalia government, which has declared it null and void. However, Somaliland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated that the recognition marks a significant diplomatic milestone for the country. Relevant foreign actors and multilateral organizations have remained cautious in responding to the agreement, refraining from doing anything that might upset the status quo of Somalia’s De Jure authority, while also not explicitly condemning the contents of the agreement.

President Muse Bihi and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) of Cooperation and Partnership between Somaliland and Ethiopia, granting Ethiopia access to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. During the signing ceremony in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital, Abiy Ahmed stated, “We have agreed with our Somaliland brothers, and MoU has been signed today,”

President Muse Bihi of Somaliland declared that in accordance with the agreement, Ethiopia would be the first nation to acknowledge Somaliland’s independence in the near future.” By signing this Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), Somaliland will lease Ethiopia 20 kilometers of its coastline. In return, Ethiopia will recognize Somaliland and receive a stake in Ethiopian Airlines.

This unprecedented agreement, if implemented, promises to alter the status quo of Ethiopia as a landlocked country and Somaliland as a de facto state, two long-pursued goals. The deal constitutes a significant shift in Ethiopia’s foreign policy towards Somalia, with Ethiopia, by formally recognizing Somaliland, signifying that it will prioritize its interests, as well as those of Somaliland, over its historical ties with Somalia.

Shortly after the agreement was reached, Somalia’s government issued a statement declaring the deal null and void because of its alleged violation of Somalia’s territorial integrity and unity.

According to Mogadishu, Somaliland is still considered part of Somalia, and any attempt to enter into an agreement with it is unlawful. In a statement released by Somalia, “The Somalia government recognizes Ethiopia’s actions as a blatant violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia”. In contrast, Somaliland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement avowing that “recognition marks a significant diplomatic milestone for our country”. However, it is important to note that Somaliland and Somalia were two separate sovereign states at the outset of decolonization, prior to their unification under the Somali Republic in 1960, which came to an end in 1991 (historical contextual factors are explained below).

Several multilateral organizations have taken a stance on the issue, including the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD), African Union (AU), European Union (EU), Arab League, and Organization for Islamic Cooperation (OIC). While these organizations did not explicitly endorse the annulment of the agreement, they proposed diplomatic dialogue among all stakeholders. This approach supported Somaliland’s case that international recognition should be treated as a regional and international concern, rather than a local issue between Somaliland and Somalia. Major Powers, including the United States, United Kingdom, Denmark, the Netherlands, Egypt, and Italy, also responded to the agreement, reinforcing their commitment to Somalia’s territorial integrity and unity while refraining from condemning the content of the agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia.

This article explores the relationship between these developments and Somaliland’s evolving approach to acquiring long-awaited international recognition. It argues that the Ethiopian-Somaliland Accord marks a turning point for both countries, with Somaliland poised to achieve international recognition and Ethiopia securing access to the sea. All signs indicate that the two countries are committed to implementing the agreement signed in Addis Ababa on January 1, 2024, and the success of the agreement will determine the future of regional integration and cooperation in the Horn of Africa.

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