Tag: Ucid

Forecasts for the Somaliland Presidential Election Using Electoral Survey Data

Forecasts for the Somaliland Presidential Election Using Electoral Survey Data

According to recent sources and analyses in Somaliland, the following surveyed polls were conducted
to provide Somalilanders with an overview of the upcoming elections scheduled for November
13, 2024. The figures below were modeled research based, proof display held over the past few
weeks, as well as phone interviews with various citizens across all regions of Somaliland. These
numbers are averaged statistical calculations.
Below are 2024 Somaliland Presidential Election that will be held on November 13th, 2024.
Those numbers are estimated, forecast and predicted from analyses in different sources,
educated and open minded in all regions of Somaliland. I’m emphasizing those numbers are
modeled from statistical analyses (mean, median and average calculations).

According to our analyses, this surveyed poll aims to highlight reasons and arguments presented by
supporters:

  • UCID – This party is viewed as outdated and fatigued. Chairman Feysal Ali Warabe has
    shown little interest and appears unwilling to invest in re-election efforts. UCID is the
    oldest of the three existing parties.
  • Waddani – As the youngest party, Wadani is highly popular. It garnered 42% of the
    vote in the 2017 presidential election. Its supporters advocate for change, as the
    Kulmiye party has led Somaliland politics for the past 14 years. Analyses and reports
    from Somaliland critics reveal that many of Wadani’s leaders previously belonged to
    0.83% 52.13% 47.04%,  including its chairman Hirsi “Hirsi Gaab,” a former Minister under
    Kulmiye’s administration. Critics note that this party maintains strong ties with the central government of Somalia, which still desires Somaliland’s reintegration. Some citizens also recall the genocide perpetrated by the Siad Barre regime during the 1980s war. Wadani has not distanced itself from such associations, leading people to believe that the campaign resources may be coming from the Somali government.
    Kulmiye – This party has led Somaliland for the past 14 years and, according to predictions, is expected to secure another term in the November 13, 2024, elections. While its popularity has waned, especially due to issues in Las Anod, its recent slight gains in the polls suggest that the party remains strong on security matters. Additionally, Kulmiye has made strides toward Somaliland’s recognition and sovereignty, particularly through a recent Memorandum of Understanding with Ethiopia.

Reasons Given to Choose a Party

According to our contacts on the ground, most people base their presidential choice on tribal affiliation. Tribalism remains a significant issue in Somaliland, with politicians exploiting it to fuel polarization among citizens. However, the more educated segment of the population, according to our sources, considers factors like security, international recognition, economic growth, and development in making their choices.

Below chart summarizes these findings:

 

Following are the most popular parties “URUURO” are the following:

  1. Kulmiye
  2. Wadani
  3. Horseed
  4. Kaah
  5. Hilaac

According to Article 9 of the Somaliland Constitution, political parties (“Xisbi”) shall not exceed three (3) parties: “1. The political system of the Republic of Somaliland shall be based on peace, cooperation, democracy, and plurality of political parties. 2. The number of political parties in the Republic of Somaliland shall not exceed three (3). 3. A special law shall determine the procedures for the formation of a political party, but it is unlawful for any political party to be based on regionalism or clannism.”
Our research and analysis indicate that the two main parties, Kulmiye and Wadani, will retain their status as “Xusbi.” Horseed, Kaah, and Hilaac will compete for the third position, potentially replacing UCID.
Let’s examine these three “Urur” closely:

  • Horseed: Chairman Abdillahi Hussein Dirawal was a member of the SNM group, which fought for Somaliland’s freedom against the regime of Siad Barre (“Afweyne”). The party is popular in the capital, Hargeisa, which has a substantial voter base. It’s noteworthy that both Dirawal and President Muse Bihi were part of the SNM and are well-connected. If Horseed succeeds in becoming a “Xusbi,” it could serve as a strong ally to Kulmiye.
  • Kaah: Chairman Mahamoud Hashi Abdi, a former Minister of the Presidency during the Silaanyo administration, leads a party popular in the Burco region. Support for this party is largely clan-based. Critics of Chairman Mahamoud cite allegations of corruption during his tenure with the Silaanyo government, particularly in connection with projects like Hargeisa Airport and the Xuba Weyne irrigation project, as well as various other initiatives. Critics argue that he cannot be trusted.
  • Hilaac: Chairman Prof. Ahmed Ismail Samater, a recent returnee from the United States, joined Somaliland politics after a challenging experience in Mogadishu, Somalia. He recently withdrew from the Somaliland elections, citing the exclusion of his party from the presidential race. His recent return to Somaliland has left him with limited time to rebuild trust among supporters, particularly in the Borama region.

In conclusion, based on information gathered from key political figures and influencers in Somaliland, Horseed, led by Chairman Dirawal, has the potential to become the third official party in the upcoming election on November 13, 2024.

SOMALILAND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION HISTORY:

All figures and data in this report were sourced from the National Election Commission of Somaliland. The first election in Somaliland was held on April 14, 2003, with 488,035 registered voters

In June 26, 2010, presidential election was held with voter registered election at 538,146 votes

 

2017 SOMALILAND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS:

What does Somaliland historical data tell us today?

According to the charts above, Somaliland voters have spoken:

  • Party UCID is in declined and is getting closer to an elimination in 2024
    election.
  • KULMIYE party is also losing supporters as WADDANI is getting more
    popular

Author: Abdulkarim Musse Maygag – Toronto – Canada –
abdulkmu@hotmail.com

Somaliland Presidential & Parties Elections Set for November 13, 2024

Somaliland Presidential & Parties Elections Set for November 13, 2024

November 13, 2024, is the date set for presidential and political party elections, according to a Saturday announcement made by the Somaliland Electoral Commission (NEC) Continue reading “Somaliland Presidential & Parties Elections Set for November 13, 2024”

Hillaac Rejects the Bullying of Chieftains & Their Proposed Joint Election

Hillaac Rejects the Bullying of Chieftains & Their Proposed Joint Election

An amendment to the law of lands is always subject to a higher threshold, such as the approval of two-thirds of parliament members or a referendum supported by the majority of electorates. Continue reading “Hillaac Rejects the Bullying of Chieftains & Their Proposed Joint Election”

The Two Colonels & their Cronies Failed Somaliland

The Two Colonels & their Cronies Failed Somaliland

Niccolò di Bernardo dei Machiavelli, an Italian diplomat, author, philosopher and historian who lived during the Renaissance, wrote in his best known book, the prince, “A prudent man should always follow in the footsteps of great men and imitate those who have been Continue reading “The Two Colonels & their Cronies Failed Somaliland”

The Somaliland Parliament’s Speaker Election is Scheduled

The Somaliland Parliament’s Speaker Election is Scheduled


The sixth session of the House of Representatives, scheduled to officially open tomorrow Sunday July 23, 2023, is supposed to choose the Speaker of the House of Representatives, which was emptied by Abdirisaq Khalif Ahmed who held that post for almost two years. He surrendered as of late subsequent to joining the uprising in Las Anod, that pursuing a unionist agenda and fighting with Somaliland forces for cessation. Continue reading “The Somaliland Parliament’s Speaker Election is Scheduled”

Various Reactions to the Election Timelines Announced by the Somaliland NEC

Various Reactions to the Election Timelines Announced by the Somaliland NEC

According to the released schedule by the Somaliland National Electoral Commission, the political parties and associations election is planned to be held on the 28th of December, 2023, trailed by the presidential election slated the 13th of November, 2024. Continue reading “Various Reactions to the Election Timelines Announced by the Somaliland NEC”

Protests Erupted in Somaliland at the onset of President’s Extension Period

Protests Erupted in Somaliland at the onset of President’s Extension Period

The right of the people in Somaliland to demonstrate peacefully is protected by the country’s constitution. Public procession does not indicate crisis brewing in the country; but rather, portrays the maturity and the growth of Somaliland democracy, although in the majority of the time, these demonstrations are the result of politicians’ skewed and inaccurate narratives. Continue reading “Protests Erupted in Somaliland at the onset of President’s Extension Period”

Tribal Hooliganism of Opposition Political Parties in Somaliland

Tribal Hooliganism of Opposition Political Parties in Somaliland

The leaders of the two opposing parties in Somaliland must stop employing politics of tribal hooliganism and respect the law and order of the county. They must be ashamed to mobilize their clans to force the election in their favor and disregard the constitution of the country and its law.

Continue reading “Tribal Hooliganism of Opposition Political Parties in Somaliland”

Culprits of Current Political Impasse in Somaliland

Culprits of Current Political Impasse in Somaliland

As of late, there is a tension in the hearts of Somaliland people throughout the country concerning a looming political chaos and civil defiance given the rhetoric of both the opposition and the ruling politicians on launching the enrollment of new political associations as well as the forthcoming presidential election. Continue reading “Culprits of Current Political Impasse in Somaliland”