Al-Shabab: Designated Terrorist Group Outperforms Somalia’s Government in Basic Governance

Al-Shabab: Designated Terrorist Group Outperforms Somalia’s Government in Basic Governance

Privately, representatives of humanitarian and development organizations often confide that Al-Shabab would be a more efficient partner than the federal government.

Although Mogadishu is nominally under federal government control, Al-Shabab tax collection is more efficient, and many business owners prefer dealing with the militants. “Al-Shabab tax system is predictable and transparent,” said a Mogadishu-based NGO director who has worked extensively in rural Somalia, and asked not to be named so they could speak freely.  “The amounts levied are fixed, and you can even appeal their decisions in their courts,” explained the director. “At roadblocks on rural roads, Al-Shabab provides receipts that allow you to avoid double taxation.”

Compare that to government checkpoints “where you basically need to pay a variable bribe to get through. It is pocketed by the collectors, which means you will be taxed again at the next checkpoint,” the NGO official added. His opinion is confirmed by a research paper studying checkpoint politics in southern Somalia.

The group’s influence extends far beyond its rural strongholds. It directly governs nearly a quarter of all district capitals in Somalia, and co-governs almost all areas nominally held by the federal government outside the autonomous region of Puntland and the Republic of Somaliland.

Recent studies by independent research organizations such as the Hiraal Institute, SaferWorld, and the International Crisis Group consistently show that Somalis view the group’s governance as efficient, compared to the corruption-plagued federal system.

This uncomfortable reality – that an internationally designated terrorist group outperforms Somalia’s government in basic governance – also emerges from my experience working as deputy director for the International NGO Safety Organization in Somalia from 2016 to 2018, and extensive field research conducted in the country for my PhD between 2019 and 2022.

Why Al-Shabab governance works

The militants have built their administrative success around creating a comprehensive system that extends far beyond military control. Their approach demonstrates how effective administration can emerge from understanding local needs and implementing consistent policies. The group replicates detailed governance systems from village to national level, with clear hierarchies and accountability mechanisms.

At the heart of Al-Shabab appeal lies their justice system. The group’s Islamic courts have earned recognition, even from critics, for delivering swift and decisive rulings that are actually implemented across their territory. Unlike Somalia’s federal courts, where cases can languish for years and outcomes often depend on elite connections or bribes,Al-Shabab judges operate under strict rotation schedules, with their clan identities kept secret to ensure impartiality. The system’s credibility is reinforced by the lack of impunity – even senior Al-Shabab members face prosecution in their own courts when accused of wrongdoing.

Security provision forms another cornerstone of the group’s governance model. In territories under their control, crime and inter-clan violence have become rare. Al-Shabab maintains an absolute monopoly on violence, treating even possession of unregistered weapons as a punishable offense. This security dividend, despite taking the form of a protection racket in government-controlled areas, enables normal economic activities to flourish, and allows the population to live in peace – if they are willing to follow the militants’ strict regulations.

The group’s ban on popular stimulants like qat and tobacco, while resented by users, is appreciated especially by women concerned about the drain it imposes on the household economy.The group’s economic policies reveal a sophisticated understanding of Somalia’s structural challenges. Al-Shabab promotes economic self-reliance, encouraging consumption of locally produced foods over imports like rice and pasta, and frowning on processed foods and soft drinks filled with “chemicals” as unhealthy foreign products.

The group regulates cash crop exports to ensure domestic markets aren’t undercut by export-oriented production, and some districts under their control have experienced faster growth than nearby government-controlled areas.

Environmental protection represents one of Al-Shabab most unexpected governance innovations. The group has enacted comprehensive environmental regulations, including bans on tree-cutting, charcoal production, and plastic bag use. While initially ridiculed by international observers, these policies address serious environmental degradation in a country facing severe deforestation and an ecological crisis.

In recent agreements with local clans, Al-Shabab has explicitly named environmental protection as a condition for allowing continued traditional self-governance, demonstrating how they integrate conservation into their broader political project. This comprehensive governance model creates a self-reinforcing cycle of legitimacy. Effective service delivery builds public acceptance, which enables more sophisticated administration, which in turn allows for more ambitious policy implementation. The result is a governance system that, while rejecting liberal democratic norms, addresses many of the practical needs that Somalia’s international-backed government has failed to meet.

The humanitarian challenge

Al-Shabab has developed substantial humanitarian capabilities that operate independently of international aid systems. In the famine of 2011-2012 that killed a quarter of a million people, many victims were blocked from accessing international aid by the group, causing a popular backlash and a drop in popularity. Since then, they have improved their aid delivery capacity, funded primarily through zakat collected from local populations, supplemented by Gulf-based Islamic charities.

During the 2017 drought that threatened famine conditions across Somalia, no starvation deaths were reported in Al-Shabab controlled areas, suggesting their distribution efforts were effective rather than merely propaganda exercises. Nevertheless, the group’s humanitarian approach reflects their broader critique of international aid dependency. Its officials consistently argue that Western food aid disrupts local markets and disincentivizes Somali agricultural production.

The neutrality of NGOs is indeed questionable, as Western donors often direct aid to increase the acceptance of the federal government by the Somali population, a practice called “stabilization” in areas recently captured from, or contested by, Al-Shabab. Access to education, health, food aid, and other basic services provided by NGOs is then presented as a benefit of living under federal government rule.

The clan challenge

Perhaps Al-Shabab’s most significant achievement lies in its management of Somalia’s clan-based social structure. Both before and after the establishment of the independent state of Somalia in 1960, clan identity has dominated Somali politics, contributing to the state’s collapse in 1991, and hampering subsequent reconstruction efforts. Al-Shabab has positioned Islamic law (sharia) above traditional clan law (xeer) for the first time in Somali history. This represents a fundamental shift from collective clan responsibility to individual accountability – a change that even critics acknowledge as potentially transformative.

The group either co-opts or appoints and rotates clan elders, organizing them by geographic districts rather than clan lineage. This weakens links between local communities and broader clan families, while strengthening ties between different clans in the same region. “Al-Shabab in that sense is a modernizing force, as it exposes Somalis to being governed by the rule of law,” noted Hussein Sheikh Ali, a former director of the Hiraal Institute think-tank. “We face a per-modern society. Most people in Somalia have never dealt with modern laws; they haven’t even felt governed.”

Despite this apparent governance success, Al-Shabab faces a crucial paradox: legitimacy without popularity. While Somalis may recognize the group’s administrative competence and align with its ideology up to a degree, it appears most do not want to live under Al-Shabab rule.

Implications for international policy

These findings pose uncomfortable questions for the international community’s approach to Somalia.

Many of the stated objectives of international state-building efforts – establishing the rule of law, reducing corruption, transcending clan politics, and promoting individual responsibility – are being achieved by “terrorists” while the federal government’s progress in these fields is excruciatingly slow.

The federal rule of law exists on paper only, legislative and executive positions continue to be allocated on a clan-basis instead of through elections and merit, and much if not most international assistance is embezzled or allocated along those same clan lines.

The current strategy of treating Al-Shabab as a terrorist organization to be eliminated militarily has proven ineffective for nearly two decades. The group has survived constant pressure from African Union forces, Somali government troops, and US drone attacks – consistently adapting and maintaining its grip on a majority of the population in central and southern Somalia.

Recent military offensives by the Hassan Sheikh Mohamud government – while achieving initial successes – have seen momentum wane as Al-Shabab reasserts control over “liberated” areas. Local populations remain skeptical of the government’s staying power and maintain ties with the militants regardless.

This presents another dilemma for policymakers and humanitarian actors. Engaging with Al-Shabab risks legitimizing a designated terrorist organization and potentially violating counter-terrorism laws. Yet, ignoring the reality of the group’s administrative control perpetuates a parallel system that may ultimately prove more durable than the internationally supported federal government.

Privately, representatives of humanitarian and development organizations often confide that Al-Shabab would be a more efficient partner than the federal government to achieve food security, establish health facilities, mitigate the effects of climate change, and improve physical infrastructure.

Khatumo – the 6th Federal Member State – and Mogadishu’s Calculations

Khatumo – the 6th Federal Member State – and Mogadishu’s Calculations

In a remarkable development, an expanded local conference held in Las Anod in July 2025 announced the formation of Somalia’s sixth federal state – the Northeastern State of Somalia, also known as Khatumo. This newly declared state encompasses the regions of Sool, Sanaag and Ayn, which remain contested by Somaliland and Puntland. These two states have rejected this development, denouncing it as a threat and a strategic maneuver by Mogadishu to reinforce its federal authority. This step risks heightening tensions and deepening political and tribal polarization in a region already plagued by a fragile and complex legal and political environment.

The central government in Mogadishu has maintained strong support for the emerging situation in the northeast. This started with supporting the armed tribal movement led by the Dhulbahante and Warsangali clans in February 2023. The movement gained momentum culminating in the defeat of the Somaliland army in August 2023 and the establishment of the Khatumo administration – a reality Mogadishu provisionally recognized in October 2023.

Further solidifying its support, Mogadishu formally accepted the new administration as a full member of the Somali federation, designating it as the sixth regional state. This decision followed a controversial visit by Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre to Las Anod, the capital of the new state, in April 2025. Furthermore, the Somali federal government has played a pivotal role in establishing the new state (the northeastern state) and provided it with legitimacy. This marks an important juncture in the history of this region and reflects the aspirations of marginalized communities to reclaim their key historical role in shaping Somalia’s national political framework.

The central government in Mogadishu considers itself the primary beneficiary of this new reality. Its key motives and calculations for redrawing Somalia’s political map include the following:

First, Advancing Centralist Orientations: The rise of the new state contributes to the recalibration of the federal balance of power in favor of the central government. This shift enhances Mogadishu’s weight in shaping national policy and potentially expands its reach over regional states. It also positions Mogadishu to play a decisive role in shaping the political elite of the new federal member (Las Anod). The new state is expected to align more closely with centralist visions of governance and future power dynamics within Somalia.

Second, Undermining Somaliland’s Sovereignty Agenda: Mogadishu and unionist elites in southern Somalia have taken the lead in creating the Northeastern State with the aim of delivering a severe blow to Somaliland’s long-standing bid for independence based on colonial-era borders (the former British Protectorate). The government of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has sensed troubling shifts in international and regional attitudes toward the Somali question, with an increasing interest in Somaliland at the expense of Somalia. Notably, signs of a changing mood in Washington suggest a potential reconsideration of the “One Somalia” policy, raising the possibility of formal recognition for Somaliland.

Khatumo State and its geographical boundaries as they appear on the map

Third, Curtailing Puntland Influence: Mogadishu’s support for Khatumo reflects a desire to empower Las Anod to chart its own course, independent of Puntland agenda. This approach disregards Garowe concerns, particularly regarding federal plans to reorganize local forces and militias – formerly affiliated with the Khatumo administration – to integrate them in the federal army. Garowe interprets these moves as a calculated move to alter regional power dynamics and impose federal control. Such changes could reduce Puntland territorial scope, reshape its social fabric and limit its ability to maintain influence, autonomy and strategic balance.

Fourth, Pursuing Economic, Geo-strategic and Demographic Objectives: The region is believed to hold significant hydrocarbon reserves. It also occupies a key strategic location that enhances the federal state’s access to the Gulf of Aden. This positioning serves as a hedge against potential shifts in international focus toward Somaliland and Puntland, which could undermine Mogadishu’s strategic relevance. Additionally, the central government may seek to weaken entrenched tribal dynamics which dominate the Somali political landscape by altering the demographic composition in areas dominated by rival clans. This includes challenging the influence of the Isaq and Darod clans in Hargeisa and Garowe, respectively, while reinforcing the position of the Hawiye clan, to which President Sheikh Mohamud and most of the elites in the center belong.

Fifth, Conveying Messages to the International Community and Somalia’s Partners: Through its actions, Mogadishu aims to project growing confidence in its ability to manage both internal and external affairs independently. In return, it expects foreign actors to recognize and engage with the federal government as the legitimate authority that is capable of guiding Somalia out of its prolonged crises. This includes asserting control over constitutional reforms, managing the relationship between the center and the peripheries and setting the terms for foreign cooperation with Somaliland and other regional states.

Somaliland and Puntland Positions and Options 

Somaliland and Puntland share common concerns regarding the fate of disputed territories, particularly Sool, Sanaag and Ayn. Somaliland has firmly rejected the creation of the Northeastern State on territories it considers “under its jurisdiction.” Hargeisa views this move as an attempt by Mogadishu to exert political influence through tribal affiliations, potentially inciting internal conflict. It also sees the development as part of a broader strategy to undermine its authority, destabilize its governance and  derail its aspirations for international recognition as an independent state.

Similarly, Puntland has strongly opposed this development and pledged to confront it. Garowe perceives the move as a direct threat to its territorial integrity and political authority. It accuses the Federal Government of Somalia of complicity in fragmenting the country. Puntland officials have warned that “the federal government is attempting to divide the nation into conflicting regional entities.”

This situation may prompt both Hargeisa and Garowe to consider possible responses, ranging from reconciliation and collaboration in confronting the central government, to more aggressive actions to challenge the legitimacy of the new administration and dismantle it.

1. Reconciliation and Strategic Alignment: Despite the tension and rivalry that have characterized the relationship between the two stable neighboring regions – Somaliland and Puntland – over the past 30 years, the current crisis may present an opportunity for them to reconcile and collaborate. Recent developments suggest a potential shift in attitudes, which could strengthen their positions and complicate the central government’s efforts to assert control over the disputed territories. A united front could reshape the political landscape and challenge the federal government’s ambitions in the region.

2. Operational Escalation and Strategic Encirclement: Somaliland may view the situation as a window for decisive military action aimed at recapturing the city of Las Anod and surrounding areas, dismantling its opponents’ presence and halting their progress toward federal integration. Puntland, meanwhile, is unlikely to remain passive in the face of such escalation by Hargeisa against Las Anod. It could potentially find itself in conflict with the latter, particularly if the new administration crosses the boundaries set by President Said Deni, which include attempts to extend its administrative reach into areas still under Puntland control, including the Sanaag region.

3. Negotiation and Diplomatic Engagement: This remains the most viable path for resolving Somalia’s current political deadlock. International mediation and support could help facilitate a broader dialogue addressing key issues such as the constitutional crisis and the legal status of the new administration. However, entrenched positions and deep-seated mistrust among Somali stakeholders continue to hinder progress toward peace and reconciliation. For instance, Somaliland President Abdirahman Irro has emphasized that talks with Mogadishu cannot proceed until concerns over sovereignty violations and the establishment of a separate administration are addressed. This suggests that any revival of negotiations between northern and southern Somalia would require a shift in Mogadishu’s approach.

The Consequences of the Creation of the New State and Its Future

The establishment of the new Federal member state in Somalia carries significant implications for the country’s future. It comes at a time of political uncertainty, persistent security challenges and financial strain, compounded by declining external support due to changing priorities among donors. The federal government and its supporters view the new state as a means to enhance national unity, peace, stability and development by integrating regions into the federal framework. However, Puntland and Somaliland view the initiative as a threat to their traditional spheres of influence and sovereignty, prompting strong opposition and resistance to any redrawing of Somalia’s political and administrative map.

Meanwhile, public sentiment across Somalia is marked by a mix of anticipation and cautious optimism. Some view the development as an opportunity to strengthen and expand the federal model and rebuild Somali federalism on the principles of equitable partnership and national unity. Others fear it may further complicate Somalia’s already intricate political dynamics, potentially escalating tensions and conflict both in the region and the country as a whole. Domestic and international stakeholders remain hopeful that these significant changes will prompt meaningful political dialogue among all Somali parties and stakeholders to forge consensus and chart a stable path forward.

The success of the new administration hinges on its ability to establish itself within a politically charged environment rife with tribal rivalries. It faces considerable hurdles in establishing functioning executive and legislative institutions, securing financial and logistical support and ensuring basic security. Most critically,  it must gain recognition and legitimacy, especially from other federal entities, amid a lack of consensus at both regional and federal levels. Without garnering sufficient acceptance from neighboring states, the administration risks remaining a symbolic entity.

Even at the local level, the new federal entity still lacks inclusive cohesion and effective control over all the territories it claims to represent. Skepticism persists among certain tribal groups, especially the Warsangli clan, about fair representation. In the Sanag region, divisions remain between supporters of the new entity and others who maintain allegiance to Puntland political and administrative structures. These tribal and regional contradictions pose significant obstacles to consolidating loyalty and building a unified governance framework.

Summary and Conclusions

The declaration of a new federal state in the Khatumo region of northeastern Somalia has sparked political controversy and deepened divisions among the Somali population. Reactions from the federal government, Somaliland and Puntland reflect growing tensions and competing visions for Somalia’s future. The disputed region’s strategic importance is likely to grow as tribal competition and regional polarization intensify, further complicating the already fragile situation in the country.

Despite the initial enthusiasm from supporters and strong opposition from rivals, the emerging administration faces numerous challenges on its path toward full federal integration. Addressing its fragile legitimacy will require expanding its representative base, resolving tribal divisions, securing both governmental and external support, improving security and living conditions and gaining recognition from other members of the Somali Federation, particularly Puntland. Additionally, mitigating potential threats from Somaliland will be essential to ensuring the stability and viability of the new state.

Xeer Hoosaadka Xisbiga Kulmiye iyo Ismaandhaafka Dhexdiisa

Xeer Hoosaadka Xisbiga Kulmiye iyo Ismaandhaafka Dhexdiisa

Muran siyaasadeed oo ka dhex taagan gudaha Xisbiga Kulmiye oo u kala qaybiyey labo dhinac ayaa dhawaan dibadda u soo ifbaxay, tiiyooy kooxahaasi eedaymo isku lid ah saxaafadda iyo baraha bulshadda isu mariyaan.

Mudo xileedka Gudidda Dhexe iyo Gudidda Fulinta ee Xisbiga Kukmiye ayaa ku eg inay dhammaaneyso bilowga bishan tobnaad ee Oktobar sanadkan, iyagoo xilkan soo hayey shantii sano ee u dambeeyey.

Mid ka mid ah garabyada xisbiga dhexdiisa ku hirdamaya waa “Gudidda Fulinta” ee waqtigan xaadirka ah xilka haysa iyo musdambeedkeeda “Gudidda Dhexe” ee iyaga la safan. Hormoodka kooxda ka horjeedaa ilaa imika ismay caddeyn laakiin xanta suuqu waxay tuhmeysaa inuu yahay Madaxweynihii hore ee dhawaan xilka ka degay.

Arrinta udub dhexaadka u ah murankan siyaasadeed ayaa noqoneysa qabashadda “Shirweynaha Xisbiga ee heer qaran” sida uu dhigaayo Axdiga Xisbigu oo ah inuu qabsoomo shantii sano ba mar, iyo awoodaha “Gudidda Dhexe” iyo “Gudidda Fulinta”.

QODOBKA 14AAD ee Xeer Hoosaadka Xisbiya ayaa qeexaya qaab-dhismeedka xisbiga, Faraciisa 1.1 ayaana u dhigan sidan hoos ku qoran:

“Shirweynaha Xisbiga ee heer qaran ayey hoos yimaadaan:

a) Golaha Dhexe ee Xisbigu

b)  Gudidda Fulinta ee Golaha Dhexe.

QODOBKA 15AAD ee xaarankan ayaa isaguna sheegaya in Shirweynaha Xisbiga ee heer qaran uu yahay awooda ugu sareysa ee xisbiga tiiyoo shirweynahana la qabanaayo shantii sanaba mar.

QODOBKA 17AAD ee axdigan xisbiga Kulmiye ayaa isna qeexaya awoodaha Shirweynaha Xisbiga ee heer qaran:

  1. Ansaxinta iyo wax-ka-bedelka dastuurka xisbiga
  2. Ansaxinta iyo wax-ka-bedelka barnaamijka xisbiga
  3. Doorashada hogaanka xisbiga oo ka kooban: gudoomiyaha iyo gudoomiye-ku xigeenada koowaad iyo labaad ee xisbiga
  4. Doorashada xubnaha golaha dhexe ee xisbiga
  5. Go’aaminta siyaasada iyo qorshayaasha guud ee xisbiga
  6. Wax-ka-bedelka ama baabi’inta go’aanada iyo xeerarka golaha dhexe.

Shirweynaha Xisbiga ee heer qaran waa madasha lagu caleemo saaro “Gudidda Dhexe iyo Gudidda Fulinta” ee xisbiga oo mudo shan sano xilka haynaya.

Axdiga Xisbiga Kulmiye oo dhan isagoo ku qoran Af Somali halkan ka AKHRISO.

Axdiga Xisbiga Kulmiye awood xeer dejin ku meelgaadha wuu siiyey “Gudiida Dhexe” isagaa sidan hoos ku qoran u dhigan:

“Inta u dhaxeysa labada shirweyne xisbi ee heer qaran; baahi jirta oo lagama
maarmaan ah awgeed, Golaha dhexe ee xisbigu wuxuu awood u leeyahay inuu wax-
ka-bedel ku sameeyo dastuurkan si danta guud ee ururka/xisbiga waafaqsan
Xaaladaha wax-ka-bedelka dastuurkan waxa lagu ansixinayaa 2/3 (saddex meelood
oo laba) tirada guud ee Golaha dhexe

Waxa ka muuqata Axdigan Xisbiga Kulmiye in aanu si cad uga hadal, xeer ka dhiganna aanu jirin, dib u dhigista Shirweynaha Xisbiga (Kulmiye Convention), taas oo noqoneysa in shirku marwalba ku qansoomo waqtigiisa.

Kooxda ka soo horjeeda dib u dhigista Shirweynaha Xisbiga waxa muuqata in ay gar leeyihiin mar haddii Xeer Hosaadkii Xisbiga aanu arrinkani ku cadeyn sida loo maamulayo iyo awooda maamuleysaba.

Haddaba adigoo tixraacaya Axdiga Xisbiga si qoto dheerna u darsaayaa, gar qaad oo eex ka fogow.

Somaliland Foreign Minister Bakaal under the Shadow of US DOJ’s Investigation

Somaliland Foreign Minister Bakaal under the Shadow of US DOJ’s Investigation

By any measure, President Abdirahaman Mohamed Abdillahi “Cirro” has appointed the weakest cabinet in Somaliland’s history. Instead of selecting ministers based on qualifications, merit, or vision, most were chosen for clan identity (DEI – Diversity, Equality, & Inclusion) or campaign contributions. No appointment has been more damaging to Somaliland’s national security and foreign policy than the naming of Mr. Abdirahman Adam Bakaal as Foreign Minister.

Bakaal has no foreign policy background, no government experience, and only a high school education which impairs his effective communication with other diplomats.

His sole qualification for office appears to be the $120,000 campaign contribution his wife, Muna Firdhin, made to Irro’s 2024 presidential bid. That payment secured him the position of Foreign Minister—one of the most vital posts for a country still fighting for international recognition.

This was a reckless political bargain, and Somaliland is now paying the price.

Bakaal cannot represent Somaliland credibly while under the shadow of an active U.S. Department of Justice investigation.In Minneapolis, Minnesota, his wife, Muna Firdhin, 44, has already been charged in the “Feeding Our Future” fraud scheme. Prosecutors say she stole more than $1 million from a federal child nutrition program, using the funds to purchase a house, luxury items and to bankroll Irro’s campaign. An indictment of Bakaal himself remains a possibility.

The mere fact that Somaliland’s Foreign Minister is entangled in such a scandal undermines our international credibility. No serious government can defend appointing a chief diplomat who may face criminal prosecution abroad

Somaliland’s diplomacy has been in disarray since Bakaal assumed office. Instead of strengthening ties with our most important ally and trading partner, Ethiopia, Cirro administration has pursued repeated visits to Qatar—a state openly hostile to Somaliland’s independence. Such moves raise legitimate fears that backroom deals are being struck that compromise our sovereignty.

More troubling, Abdirahman Beyle, a known Siad Barre apologist and former Somalia Finance Minister, and Jama Mohamoud Abdillahi Egal – widely known as (@Jgabush) Gabush and is Cirro cousin, are shaping Somaliland’s foreign policy. This is a betrayal of the very idea of Somaliland’s independence, fought for with sacrifice and defended for more than three decades.

President Cirro must come clean: does he truly believe in Somaliland’s independence, or is his government quietly preparing to unite with the failed state of Somalia under pressure from foreign sponsors?

While the government flounders, Somaliland diaspora remains one of our strongest assets. But too much energy is wasted on social media arguments with Somaliland detractors. Instead, the diaspora should engage where it matters most: local politics and advocacy.

Recently, Congressman Scott Perry (R-PA) has introduced legislation in the U.S. Congress to recognize Somaliland. Every Somaliland supporter should lobby their representatives to co-sponsor this bill. Write to your congressman. Write to local newspapers and universities. Tell Somaliland story and expose the failure of U.S. policy, which rewards chaos and corruption in Mogadishu while ignoring peace and democracy in Hargeisa.

I still remember the 1980s, when the Somali National Movement (SNM) was fighting against Somalia’s Marxist dictator, Siad Barre. Despite Barre enjoying the support of the United States, Italy, Arab countries, a large embassy in Washington, D.C., and a powerful lobby led by Paul Manafort—later Trump’s campaign manager—a handful of determined patriots operated from a small office in Falls Church, Virginia. From there, they waged a relentless media campaign, exposing the atrocities of Barre’s regime to the world.

Their efforts eventually contributed to the U.S. cutting off aid, the regime’s financial lifeline. That office was led by the resolute and determined leadership of Dr. Ibrahim Meygag Samatar. We can replicate those efforts today, but only if we unite and rise above the divisive clan politics that continue to hold us back.

Our representative in Washington, Bashir Goth, must also do more. He has failed to engage with the diaspora, leaving untapped powerful resource that could amplify Somaliland’s case in the United States. This must change immediately!

Somaliland has no shortage of qualified, respected figures who could represent our cause on the world stage—individuals like Professor Ahmed Ismail Samatar of Macalester College and others with decades of academic and diplomatic experience. Instead, we are saddled with a Foreign Minister whose main credential is a campaign payoff and whose loyalty to Somaliland is in question.

As Harry Truman famously said: “The buck stops here.” President Cirro cannot pass the blame. The appointment of Bakaal was his decision, and the damage done to Somaliland’s diplomacy is his responsibility. The people of Somaliland deserve better than an “anti-Somaliland” figure at the helm of our foreign policy at this critical juncture.

If Cirro truly cares about Somaliland’s independence, stability, and international reputation, he must act decisively and remove Bakaal from office.

For the sake of Somaliland’s sovereignty and dignity, Bakaal must go.

Author:  Ali-Guban Mohamed

Future of Somaliland under President Cirro’s Administration

Future of Somaliland under President Cirro’s Administration

Abstract
This comprehensive analysis explores the challenges posed by the election of Mr. Cirro as Somaliland’s new president. It highlights his controversial leadership, alleged affiliations with corrupt and extremist entities, and the broader implications for Somaliland governance, economy, and society. The report examines Mr. Cirro’s tribalism tactics, questionable loyalties, and lack of governance experience. It discusses the potential scenarios of civil unrest and loss of sovereignty, alongside actionable recommendations to mitigate these risks and chart a path toward stability and progress. Continue reading “Future of Somaliland under President Cirro’s Administration”

Actually, Who is in Charge of Somaliland’s Presidency?

Actually, Who is in Charge of Somaliland’s Presidency?

Violence and lawlessness have prevailed since President Abdirahman Cirro took office. This week, a masked gunman killed two young adults at a busy bus station in Hargeisa, Somaliland. The killer remains at large. Initially, no press conference from the Minister of Security, police Chief, or the Hargeisa Mayor. The situation remains tense. The relatives demand answers from the government. There are demonstrations across several towns because of the slow response to these murders and the arrest of a sub-clan leader advocating justice for the victims.

The police have not arrested or questioned any suspects or witnesses for these murders. The Cirro administration is trying to sweep the murders under the rug, but the families have refused to bury the victims until the police bring justice to the perpetrator or perpetrators.

However, it should not be politicized the callous failure of Cirro administration or the Mayor of Hargeisa in handling these murders. It should be respected the victims and hold their funeral expeditiously regardless of the outcome of the police investigation, which could take time.

Instead of solving murders, the Cirro administration deployed sycophant cabinet Ministers and a rogue sub-clan elders as a surrogate, to wage a smear campaign against elders demanding answers from law enforcement—a tactic that he used repeatedly in the past to sow division among communities–where clan divisions remain explosive

Moreover, recently, two people died after police fired upon people demonstrating against a Chinese funded mining company for precious and rare metals in clashes with communal farmers and pastoralists in Agabar Township northwest Somaliland.

Many voters have serious concerns about the security and public safety of the country since Cirro took office. They feel “buyer’s remorse” because Cirro is not up to the job. Cirro’s inability to address the lawlessness, violence ravaging the nation, and the blatant interference of Somaliland territorial integrity by the weak Mogadishu government and their tribal proxy in East Sool, illustrate that he is either incapable or someone else is running the presidency.

So, if Cirro is not actually running the government, who is?

There are, of course, the people around Cirro. Some of his family members—like his wife, Fardus Robleh, who toured the DP World run Berbera port right after Cirro’s inauguration; Cousin Jama “Gabuush” Abdillahi, —who have been especially close since he won the presidential election; and Rhoda Abdillahi, Jama’s sister, a nurse aide, whose husband became a deputy Government Minister, and she bought a 10-bedroom house in “Isha Boorama’ ward, right after Cirro took office. She used to live in a shanty two-bedroom rental apartment near Hargeisa Central prison.

Somaliland citizens elected Cirro and not Gabuush or his wife. The public wants to know his title and capacity. They have the right to know what Gabuush is doing at the Somaliland presidential office or Foreign Ministry. Did he work for the Somaliland government, or President Cirro?  What is his position? Is he an agent for the so-called Federal Government?

Jama Gabuush, Somalia apologist, is  a man with a shady background and corrupt  business and political  ties to the so-called Federal Government in Mogadishu, UNSOM, Christian faith based NGOs,  private contractors, who run parallel governments to undermine self governance of African countries..His biggest business plan is to make the area surrounding Hargeisa airport and a beachfront real estate in Berbera a highly fortified posts  like  the  “ Halane” of Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital.

Many people believe that Gabuush is running the country and is the de facto leader of Somaliland. His political objective is to make Somaliland a poor member state of the failing Federal Republic of Somalia. So far, he is succeeding using Cirro’s election as a conduit to accomplish that goal.

Gabuush calls the shots for both domestic and foreign policies, effectively running the foreign Ministry and Ministry of Foreign Investment. He has sidelined the Foreign Minister. For instance, Cirro/Gabuush chartered a new roadmap to undermine Somaliland’s quest for diplomatic recognition, using the Somaliland government as a vehicle to solicit cash from rich Arab Gulf countries, including Qatar, a country funding the destruction of Somaliland as we know it.

On the business side, his main objective is to use the Somaliland government as a cash cow as previous corrupt Kulmiye party administrations did. Jama Gabuush is signing shady investment and mining deals. For instance, on May 12, 2025, the President Cirro signed a $100 million agriculture project agreement with US  based African Food Security (AFS) at Banka Salahley, outskirts of Hargeisa, despite  shady AFS Agricultural project deals in Senegal that went sour. After strong opposition from activists, local farmers and pastoralists against the plan because of lack of consultation, Cirro/Gabuush shelved the project until further notice.

Cirro/Gabuush never believed in the rule of law, our constitution or Somaliland independence, undermining peace and security. Under the direction from Gabuush, Cirro/Gabuush administration fired hundreds of officers who had decades of experience protecting the homeland because they belonged to former President Bihi Sub-clan.  Nineteen officers are still languishing in Somaliland jails without charges.

The officers gallantly served our country.  The media is calling for the immediate release of the 19 officers. Their arrests are a hugely repressive move and risk moving Somaliland into a police state and toward authoritarianism. They must be released and if there are charges against them it must be dropped.

Their arrests are nothing more than a distraction and noise to cover the failure of Cirro/Gabuush administration to secure public safety, cracking down on terrorists and their Radical Ictisaam sympathizers, restoring law and order, and protect the territorial integrity of Somaliland from blatant attack and interference emanating from the weak Mogadishu government and their proxy militias in Eastern Sool region.

The Cirro/Gabuush relationship reminds the public of that relationship between the late Somali dictator Siad Barre and his cousin Abdirahman Barre, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Somalia, the same job Jama Gabuush is holding now. But we know how that regime ended!

For this week’s murders, it would be a gross injustice to the victims and their families if our law enforcement fails to hold the perpetrator or perpetrators accountable. If justice is not administered for the victims and their families, people will take matters into their own hands’ Vigilante Justice”, resulting in mob violence. That would be a tragedy and we must avoid it at any cost.

For this week’s murders, it would be a gross injustice to the victims and their families if our law enforcement fails to hold the perpetrator or perpetrators accountable. If justice is not administered for the victims and their families, people will take matters into their own hands’ Vigilante Justice”, resulting in mob violence. That would be a tragedy and we must avoid it at any cost.

We will not see justice until the government arrests, indict and convict the perpetrators or perpetrators of this heinous crime.  In the past, candidate Cirro funded, aided and abetted the insurrection in East Sool and the police killers at Gacan Libaax ambush. But this time, President Cirro has to choose: either he is with the criminals or with the victims. He can’t have it both ways!

Finally, If Cirro is in charge of the Somaliland presidency, he should commit himself to the Somaliland agenda on which he was elected—his constitutional duty to protect and defend Somaliland and put the interest of the country ahead of his family’s interests. He must make a choice between serving Somaliland people’s interests or his family’s.

May Allah Bless Somaliland
Ali-Guban Mohamed, Founder and Editor Guban Media email: Aliadm18@gmail.com

Corruption is a Qualification for Leadership in Somaliland

Corruption is a Qualification for Leadership in Somaliland

It is tragic — and frankly enraging — when nations continue to elect thugs, gangsters, and men devoid of dignity to lead them. Continue reading “Corruption is a Qualification for Leadership in Somaliland”

Somalia Rushes to Old Alliance with Egypt and Eritrea as Ethiopia-Somalia Deal Fails

Somalia Rushes to Renewing Alliance with Egypt and Eritrea as Ethiopia-Somalia Deal Fails

The agreement between Ethiopia and Somalia, which was mediated by the Turkiye to put a stop to hostilities and arrange for Ethiopia’s access to the sea, has reportedly failed miserably.
Continue reading “Somalia Rushes to Old Alliance with Egypt and Eritrea as Ethiopia-Somalia Deal Fails”

Somaliland: A Roadmap to Recognition

Somaliland: A Roadmap to Recognition

A Report by the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Somaliland

The All-Party Parliamentary Group on Somaliland was formed with the goal of promoting an understanding of and support for Somaliland achievements in building peace, democratic governance and a sovereign state in the Horn of Africa. It is chaired by the Rt Hon Sir Gavin Williamson CBE MP, with Kim Johnson MP as co-chair, Abtisam Mohamed MP as vice chair and Lord Udny-Lister as an officer. Continue reading “Somaliland: A Roadmap to Recognition”

Somaliland Child Education: An Emerging Model in the Horn of Africa

Somaliland Child Education: An Emerging Model in the Horn of Africa

Somaliland covers an area of 137,600 kilometers and shares a broader with Ethiopia, Djibouti and Somalia. Hargeisa is the political and commercial capital of Somaliland. School education system of Somaliland is playing a vital role for the cognitive, social and emotional growth of children and is responsible for the overall well being of children. In Somaliland, for the first two to three years of a child’s life, early childhood education is integrated into formal schools and private Quranic schools. Primary school lasts eight years, divided into elementary and intermediate cycles. Continue reading “Somaliland Child Education: An Emerging Model in the Horn of Africa”