Competing Diplomatic Maneuvers Over Somalia: Will Cairo Triumph Over Ankara?
Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is set to begin an official trip to Cairo, Egypt, on Tuesday. The visit happens during a crucial period, aligning with initial discussions between Somalia and Ethiopia being held in Ankara, Turkey.
Somalia and Egypt are likely to finalize a defense cooperation deal during this visit. The defense ministers of both countries will sign the agreement with President Hassan Sheikh and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi present. Despite the Somali Cabinet’s approval of the agreement, the details have not been revealed to the press
President Hassan will be joined by important Somali figures on the visit, such as Somali National Army members, the Minister of Defense, the head of the National Intelligence and Security Agency, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs. During August 13th to 15th, the delegation will stay in Egypt, as the Somali public eagerly anticipates the outcomes of the ongoing talks between Somalia and Ethiopia in Turkey.
The trip to Cairo takes place amid a prolonged disagreement between Ethiopia and Egypt regarding the building of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The dam has greatly decreased the amount of water in the Nile River, which is crucial for Egypt’s farming. Moreover, Ethiopia’s recent deal with Somaliland, allowing it sea access, has heightened tensions with Somalia, pushing Somalia and Egypt into a closer relationship based on the belief that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
On a different note, Ethiopia continues to have the largest number of troops in Somalia compared to other foreign forces, highlighting the importance of Ethiopia’s military assistance. This military partnership has been a fundamental aspect of the relationship between the two nations, with Ethiopia supporting Somalia during its toughest moments.
The departure of ATMIS forces will create a security gap that different groups are competing to fill. One of them is Egypt, which has indicated its desire to undertake a peacekeeping task in Somalia
However, Ethiopian leadership believes that there have been attempts by certain entities to interfere and strain the longstanding relationship between Ethiopia and Somalia. This is particularly evident in the aftermath of the Memorandum of Understanding signed between Ethiopia and the Republic of Somaliland. Some countries and groups have tried to capitalize on this development to destabilize the strategic region.
Egypt, a rival of Ethiopia in the region, has recently presented itself as a “peacekeeper” for Somalia, even though it was not seen during Mogadishu’s toughest moments. This action from Cairo seems like an effort to utilize Somalia as a Trojan horse in order to accomplish its secret goals in the area, weakening the close relationship between Ethiopia and Somalia
During a special interview with the Arabic version of Ethiopian Press Agency, the expert in International Affairs, Abdul-Rahman Ahmed (PhD), stated that Egypt has consistently been against Ethiopian interests and has interfered in the affairs of Horn of Africa nations to use them as a tool to intimidate Ethiopia
Abdul-Rahman also mentioned that not only are Egyptian politicians criticizing Ethiopia, but they are also getting involved in Somalia’s issues. Despite declaring independence from Somalia in the 1990s, Somaliland has faced difficulties in obtaining global acknowledgment. He mentioned that despite this, Somaliland has its own parliament, government, army, police, borders, and a distinctive passport.
According to him, the Ethio-Somaliland agreement is expected to progress as Ethiopia is dedicated to creating a maritime link with Somaliland, and Somaliland is keen on enhancing its ties with Ethiopia. He also recommended that both parties concentrate on common interests and steer clear of provocation and strife to enhance security, peace, stability, and prosperity in the area. He thinks it is only natural and logical for Somaliland to react to Egyptian interventions.
As President Hassan gets ready for his trip to Cairo, concerns surface regarding the potential implications of this visit on the discussions in Ankara. Will Cairo prioritize defense and alliances, or will Ankara’s focus on dialogue and mutual understanding influence the outcome? The results of these simultaneous diplomatic initiatives could have a substantial impact on the regional situation in the Horn of Africa.
On Sunday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan talked on the phone with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed before the discussions between their representatives in Ankara.
Erdogan encouraged both leaders to demonstrate dedication in producing actual results from the discussions, stating that Ankara is fully committed to ensuring that this communication leads to tangible outcomes.
Indirect discussions mediated by Turkey between delegates from Somalia and Ethiopia began in Ankara today. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is facilitating communication between the two delegations by meeting separately with their representatives to relay messages indirectly, without them having to face each other
The Somali president’s upcoming visit to Egypt showcases the failure of the Ethiopia-Somalia meeting in Ankara, Turkey due to the polarizing nature of Egyptian administration.
Anticipated defense deal between Egypt and Somalia will lead to increased diplomatic activity in the Horn of Africa. The talks between Ethiopia and Somalia are likely to be unsuccessful due to Egypt’s readiness to take advantage of Somalia’s vulnerable position.
Egypt’s actions are actually beneficial for Somaliland’s Memorandum of Understanding with Ethiopia, as they intensify the conflict between the countries benefiting from the Nile river and accelerate the completion of the MoU. This is because Ethiopia views it as a crucial move to counter Egypt’s involvement in the Horn region
On the contrary, whether the Somalia-Ethiopia discussions in Ankara end in failure or success, Turkey is well-placed because of its friendly ties with both countries.