Questions on the Status of Ankara Communique between Ethiopia & Somalia are Increasing
Concerns are mounting regarding the current status of the Ankara communiqué, which was designed to pave the way for a comprehensive agreement between Somalia and Ethiopia by May 2025. This timeline holds significant importance for both nations, yet officials have been notably reticent about any complications that may be obstructing the ongoing negotiations. Interestingly, even the Turkish government, which has actively facilitated and supported these discussions, has not offered any recent updates or insights into the progression of talks.
According to a credible insider privy to the situation, the numerous high-level meetings that have occurred thus far have failed to produce any meaningful outcomes. Observers note a growing sentiment that these diplomatic endeavors have devolved into mere formalities, lacking any real commitment to advancing the negotiation process. As such, there appears to be a troubling consensus among various stakeholders: the noble aspirations for a lasting peace and cooperation between Somalia and Ethiopia are at risk of being overshadowed by a lack of earnest engagement from both parties involved.
The current geopolitical situation in the Horn of Africa is further complicated by the Ethiopian government’s decision to uphold a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that it signed with the Republic of Somaliland in January 2024. This agreement, which is set to come into effect shortly, is anticipated to facilitate enhanced autonomy for both parties, allowing them to pursue their own developmental agendas without being overly reliant on each other. This development could have profound implications for the ongoing negotiations surrounding a proposed final agreement involving other regional stakeholders, potentially reshaping the dynamics of diplomatic relations in the area.
Adding to these complexities is the recent and controversial repatriation of over 60,000 Ethiopian workers from neighboring Djibouti. This deportation has ignited considerable outrage among the affected communities, many of whom have been forced to leave their homes and return to an uncertain situation in Ethiopia. The mass return has not only deepened the humanitarian crisis but also exacerbated tensions between Ethiopia and Djibouti, straining diplomatic ties in an already sensitive region.
In response to these multifaceted challenges, the Ethiopian government appears to be adopting a measured and cautious diplomatic strategy. Rather than placing undue reliance on any single partnership, it seems to be strategically diversifying its international relations. One significant outcome of this approach is the increasing importance of the Berbera port, located in Somaliland, as a crucial hub for Ethiopia’s export and import activities. The port has emerged as a viable alternative to traditional trade routes, offering a strategic solution to Ethiopia’s logistical needs during these turbulent times. This shift not only reflects Ethiopia’s adaptive response to regional challenges but also highlights the evolving economic landscape in the Horn of Africa.
As tensions rise in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia’s steadfast commitment to its January 2024 MOU with Somaliland is becoming a geopolitical game-changer. With the agreement set to take effect soon, it signals a move toward independent cooperation between Addis Ababa and Hargeisa, potentially shifting the region’s diplomatic equilibrium.
Author: Eng. Abdi Ali Barkhad tra50526@gmail.com