Donald Yamamoto: A Colonial Governor or US Ambassador to Somalia
It is a truism among diplomats that it never hurts to talk. The reality is quite different. Certainly, diplomacy, properly practiced, can advance peace and stability. Careless diplomacy, however, can set back peace or empower terrorists and tyrants.
America and the European Unions’ recent track-records are poor. Throughout the late 1990s, the State Department engaged repeatedly with the Taliban. After meeting with Taliban leaders, senior diplomats bragged about the progress they had made quarantining Al Qaeda leader Usama Bin Laden, winning pledges to close terror training camps, and even ending the Afghan civil war. Claims of success continued almost up to the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Then there’s Iran: Between 1998 and 2005, European officials put diplomacy with Iran on the fast-track, tripling trade to make it happen. The Iranian regime took the cash and invested it directly into its ballistic missile and then-covert nuclear programs: Fast-tracked diplomacy actually increased tension. The same could be said with regard to Russia—think “re-start” diplomacy, or North Korea. The basic problem in all these cases is that for diplomacy to succeed, all sides must be sincere.
At issue is the attempt by U.S. Ambassador to Somalia Donald Yamamoto, in conjunction with the naïve but ambitious Ethiopian prime minister Ahmed Abiy, to force a resolution between Somalia and Somaliland. The idea of talks leading to reunification of Somalia is not new; Turkey has previously sought to mediate although its economic and ideological ambitions lead locals to distrust its ability or desire to act as an honest broker.
It is unclear, however, why now? Somalia is teetering on the brink of failure while Somaliland is largely stable. After all, when Somalia collapsed in 1991, Somaliland rose to success—attracting international businesses, building top-ranked schools, and holding multiple democratic elections secured with biometric iris scans. Somali nationalists wish to assert full control over Somaliland. The Somaliland majority, however, has no desire to subordinate themselves to a country ranked the world’s most corrupt and one still teetering on the brink of failure.
Yamamoto may simply wish to cap his career with a diplomatic success, and he may believe he can bully local leaders into a unity agreement while Washington is distracted. Rebuilding Somalia and regional integration has been a major theme of his career. In various posts in Africa and at the State Department, he has been instrumental to Somalia policy. Ironically, however, his efforts to imbue the Somali leadership with power and their capacity to manage may have made unity talks less likely to succeed. Here, two mistakes stand out: First, Yamamoto has insisted that all U.S. government and international lenders channel all money through Mogadishu. In theory, this gives Somalia’s leadership the ability to buy patronage although, in reality, it has both fanned terrorism and repeated the mistake of the international community’s dealings with Saddam Hussein. Second, by facilitating transfer of control over Somaliland’s airspace to authorities in Mogadishu, Yamamoto has not only undercut efforts to combat weapons smuggling from Turkey and Qatar into Somalia, but has also encouraged Mogadishu to try to strangle Somaliland into submission.
Timing seems to affirm that Yamamoto’s Horn of Africa initiative is off-the-cuff. Many administrations engage in high-stakes diplomacy as the clock runs down on their tenure. Bill Clinton has the Camp David II process, for example, to seek peace between Israel and the Palestinians, and George W. Bush did likewise with the Annapolis process. Seldom are such processes launched during a president’s first term nor are they conducted without fanfare or clear White House let alone State Department head office buy-in. Power is intoxicating, but Yamamoto’s increasing tendency to act like a colonial governor will backfire. Rushed and uncoordinated diplomacy and individual free-lancing often do. Peace will come to the Horn of Africa only when Somalia gets its own house in order and when Somalia prioritizes capacity over revanchism.