Is Somaliland Slowly Becoming a New Cold War Battleground?
Somaliland has recently grown more significant to regional and global powers due to its strategic location on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial maritime route connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
Somaliland is drawing more attention due to its geographic location, resources, and potential as a gateway for African market.. There are worries that Somaliland might turn into a new Cold War front line due to the country’s rising popularity. Russia, China, and the United States are vying with one another for sway in the area, and they may use Somaliland as a pawn in their conflict. It is uncertain how the United Arab Emirates would react to a confrontation between the United States and China despite the fact that it is also a significant participant in Somaliland
China’s proxy war in Somaliland due to Taiwan factor
China sees Somaliland as a strategic geopolitical battleground in a new Cold War against Western influence. Somaliland’s relationship with Taiwan has angered Beijing and threatens its One China Policy. In 2020, Somaliland opened a representative office in Taiwan, and Taiwan opened one in Hargeisa, Somaliland’s capital. This quasi-diplomatic relationship provides Somaliland economic and political benefits but has made it a target of China’s displeasure.
China has responded through proxy warfare, using economic and political pressure against Somaliland to force it to cut ties with Taiwan. China has sway over neighboring countries like Somalia and Ethiopia, which have imposed sanctions and an airspace ban on Somaliland at China’s behest. China also provides massive investments and loans in East Africa, which it is leveraging against Somaliland.
For Somaliland, China’s actions pose an existential threat. China aims to isolate Somaliland politically and economically until it severs ties with Taiwan. For Taiwan, Somaliland is a crucial diplomatic ally in Africa. Losing Somaliland would undermine Taiwan’s sovereignty and support in the face of Chinese aggression.
The Taiwan factor has transformed Somaliland into a focal point of China’s ambitions against Western interests in East Africa. China’s willingness to damage Somaliland’s stability and economy to achieve its geopolitical goals reveals the ruthlessness behind its friendly rhetoric of win-win cooperation and mutual benefit. Somaliland finds itself in a precarious position, caught in a new Cold War between global superpowers.
Putin’s eyes on Zeila for strategic interests in Somaliland
Russia has strategic interests in Somaliland that center around gaining access to ports and military bases. Zeila port in eastern Somaliland is of particular interest to Putin. Controlling Zeila would give Russia naval access to the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key maritime chokepoint between the Horn of Africa and Yemen. This complements Russia’s existing naval facility in Tartus, Syria, and could enable force projection into the Middle East and Indian Ocean.
There are also economic motivations behind Russia’s ambitions in Somaliland. Putin wants to gain control of Somaliland’s energy resources and trade routes. As Western sanctions continue to damage Russia’s economy, Putin is looking to Africa for trade and investment. Somaliland’s largely untapped oil reserves and minerals are attractive, as is its strategic location along major trade routes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
By strengthening ties with Somaliland, Putin also aims to counter Western influence in the region and push back against China’s dominance in east Africa.
Overall, Russia’s ambitions in Somaliland reflect Putin’s desire to project power on a global scale, gain control of strategic maritime chokepoints, and counter Western alliances. Somaliland risks becoming embroiled in a new cold war battleground as Putin and Xi compete for influence in this fragile but strategically important region.
Recommendations for Somaliland Government
To safeguard its sovereignty, the Somaliland government should pursue a careful balancing act between China, Russia and the West.
Build ties with Western democracies
Somaliland should strengthen relations with Western democracies like the United States and United Kingdom, which support its democratic aspirations. The government could invite election observers, seek development aid and push for recognition of Somaliland’s independence. Deeper engagement with the West provides a counterbalance to China and Russia’s influence.
Be wary of China and Russia’s ambitions
While China and Russia provide economic opportunities, their political and military ambitions threaten Somaliland’s autonomy. The government must be cautious in engaging with China and Russia to avoid becoming dependent or indebted to them. It should scrutinize all foreign investments and loans to ensure they do not undermine the country’s interests. Military cooperation with China or Russia could also provoke retaliation from Western allies.
Diversify foreign partnerships
Rather than choosing sides, Somaliland should diversify its foreign partnerships to serve its interests. It could strengthen ties with Middle Eastern countries like the United Arab Emirates, which has already invested in Somaliland, as well as engage other African Union members. Broadening its network of allies and partners will make Somaliland less vulnerable to pressure from any single country.
The Somaliland government must pursue a balanced and prudent foreign policy to safeguard its democratic system of government and sovereignty. By strengthening ties with Western democracies, approaching China and Russia with caution, and diversifying its partnerships, Somaliland can gain greater control over its political destiny. The country’s location along strategic trade routes means major powers will likely continue vying for influence, but Somaliland can turn this competition to its advantage through shrewd diplomacy.
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