Africa’s Complex 2022 Elections, Somaliland’s will be the most Democratic
Responding to the coups, conflicts, and other derailments of democratic processes in recent years, Africa’s 2022 elections are largely an effort to right the democratic ship of state on the continent.
There is little that is ordinary about the African elections slated for 2022. With multiple elections intended to restart the democratic process and resume constitutional governance, Africa’s elections in 2022 will be unlike anything the continent has seen in recent years. Libya, Somalia, Mali, Guinea, and Chad are all tentatively scheduled to hold elections that have been delayed or disrupted by coups or conflict. The parameters shaping these electoral processes have yet to be finalized and even the timing of when they will take place remains up in the air.
Africa’s 2022 elections, therefore, will be dynamic and complex. Given the legitimizing authority that a credible electoral process can bring, it is the manner in which these elections are managed, more than the specific outcomes, that will be significant for shaping Africa’s governance and security environment.
While not officially recognized by any state, one of the most democratic presidential elections to be held in Africa in 2022 may well be in Somaliland. Since 1991, Somaliland has held regular presidential and legislative elections that have resulted in periodic alternations of power. This was the result in the May 2021 Lower House and Local Council elections, in which the governing Kulmiye Peace, Unity and Development Party won fewer seats than the opposition alliance of the Wadani National Party and the Justice and Welfare Party in a close election. The results were quickly accepted by Kulmiye leaders and the opposition alliance was subsequently able to select the new leader of the House of Representatives
These local elections may be a harbinger for the presidential elections where Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi of the ruling Kulmiye party is seeking a second 5-year term. Analysts suggest Bihi will need to govern more inclusively if he hopes to win in November, paying particular attention to shoring up constituencies in the east of the territory where turnout (amounting to 64 percent overall) was relatively lowest. At the least, the results show the competitiveness of Somaliland’s three-party electoral system and the accountability it holds for incumbent leaders.
Somaliland has navigated a positive democratic trajectory because of the strong democratic culture that has been embraced by its nearly 6 million residents. This is backed by consensus among all three parties on the importance of resolving differences through negotiation without disrupting the territory’s cherished reputation for stability.
Somaliland’s institutions, however, remain underdeveloped and in need of strengthening. This includes establishing more clarity and consistency in the timeframe for holding elections. The previous election for the House of Representatives was in 2005 and for Local Council in 2012. The Upper House of Elders, also known as the Guurti, is generally considered to have played a valuable moderating role in finding consensus around political disagreements. However, its members were last selected in the early 2000’s and its seats are passed by hereditary succession. The Guurti elections of May 2022, therefore, will go far in reinvigorating Somaliland’s democratic tapestry. To avoid fragmentation, Somaliland also has a stipulation limiting the political arena to three parties. Party licenses are awarded every 10 years based on elections. This process is set to take place in December, capping off what will be a busy electoral calendar in 2022.